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External Imbalances and the US Current Account: How Supply-Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment

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  • Philipp Engler
  • Michael Fidora
  • Christian Thimann

Abstract

The influential work of Obstfeld and Rogoff argues that a closing-up of the US current account deficit involves a large exchange rate adjustment. However, the Obstfeld-Rogoff model works exclusively via demand-side channels and abstracts from possible supply-side changes. We extend the framework to allow for endogenous supply-side changes and show that this fundamentally alters the mechanism of the adjustment process. Allowing for such an extension attenuates quite significantly the implied exchange rate adjustment. The paper also provides some empirical evidence of variations in the supply-side structure and correlations with the exchange rate and the current account. The policy implications are that measures to foster a supply-side reaction would facilitate the external adjustment by alleviating an exclusive reliance on demand and exchange rate changes, with the latter being potentially destabilizing for the global financial system. Copyright © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Engler & Michael Fidora & Christian Thimann, 2009. "External Imbalances and the US Current Account: How Supply-Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment ," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 927-941, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:17:y:2009:i:5:p:927-941
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    Cited by:

    1. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Horst Raff, 2011. "Exchange‐rate Misalignments in Duopoly: The Case of Airbus and Boeing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 623-641, April.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & John Hassler & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Chapter 3: Greece," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 97-125, February.
    3. Lucas Papademos, 2007. "The Effects of Globalization on Inflation, Liquidity and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 593-608 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
    5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "On the Complementarity of Equilibrium Exchange-Rate Approaches," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 618-632, September.
    6. Stefan Hohberger & Lukas Vogel & Bernhard Herz, 2014. "Budgetary-Neutral Fiscal Policy Rules and External Adjustment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 909-936, November.
    7. Agustín Bénétrix & Philip Lane, 2010. "Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 335-350, July.
    8. Vestin, David & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2007. "Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing assumptions," Working Paper Series 770, European Central Bank.
    9. Rey, Serge, 2009. "L’apport du NATREX à la modélisation des taux de change d’équilibre : théorie et application au dollar canadien," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(2), pages 131-181, juin.
    10. Engler, Philipp, 2009. "Global rebalancing in a three-country model," Discussion Papers 2009/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Michael Frenkel & Jan Christoph Rülke & Lilli Zimmermann, 2011. "Do Current Account Forecasters Herd? – Evidence from the Euro Area and the G7 Countries," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-01, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    12. Christoph Zwick, 2013. "Current Account Adjustment in the Euro-Zone: Lessons from a Flexible-Price-Model," Graz Economics Papers 2013-08, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    13. Vogel, Lukas, 2014. "Nontradable sector reform and external rebalancing in monetary union: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 421-434.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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