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Global rebalancing in a three-country model

  • Engler, Philipp

This paper extends the model of Engler et al. (2007) on the adjustment of the US current account to a three-country world economy. This allows an analysis of the differential impact of a reversal of the US current account on Europe and Asia. In particular, the outcomes under different exchange rate policies are analysed. The main finding is that large factor re-allocations from non-tradables to tradables will be necessary in the US. The direction of factor re-allocation in Asia depends on whether the Bretton-Woods-II regime of unilaterally fixed or manipulated exchange rates in Asia is continued. If this is the case, the tradables sector and the current account surplus will continue to grow even when the US deficit closes. The flip side of this result is that Europe will face a huge real appreciation and an enormous current account deficit. With floating exchange rates worldwide, the impact on Europe will be limited while Asia´s tradables sector will shrink.

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Paper provided by Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2009/1.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20091
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  1. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "Direct investment, rising real wages and the absorption of excess labor in the periphery," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  3. Caballero, Ricardo J & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt7xc0g8mm, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Working Papers 11563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  7. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  8. Philipp Engler & Michael Fidora & Christian Thimann, 2009. "External Imbalances and the US Current Account: How Supply-Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment ," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 927-941, November.
  9. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Savings Gluts and Interest Rates: The Missing Link to Europe," NBER Working Papers 11520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2004. "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap," NBER Working Papers 10727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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