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On the Solvency of Nations: Cross-Country Evidence on the Dynamics of External Adjustment

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  • C. Bora Durdu
  • Enrique G. Mendoza
  • Marco E. Terrones

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that net foreign asset positions are consistent with external solvency and examine the dynamics of external adjustment using data for 50 countries over the 1970-2006 period. Our analysis adapts Bohn's (2007) error-correction reaction function approach--which tests for a negative long-run relationship between net exports (NX) and net foreign assets (NFA) as a sufficiency condition for the intertemporal budget constraint to hold--to a dynamic panel framework. Pooled Mean Group and Mean Group error-correction estimation yield evidence of a statistically significant, negative response of NX to NFA. Moreover, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the response is largely homogeneous across countries. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the countries with relatively weaker fundamentals need to respond more strongly to the changes in NFA to keep their NFAs on a sustainable path.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2012. "On the Solvency of Nations: Cross-Country Evidence on the Dynamics of External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 18380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18380
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Hoffmann & Michael Krause & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "International Capital Flows, External Assets and Output Volatility," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201442, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2017. "Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union," Working Papers REM 2017/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. D.D. Evans, Martin, 2017. "External balances, trade and financial conditions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 165-184.
    4. Albuquerque Bruno & Baumann Ursel & Krustev Georgi, 2015. "US household deleveraging following the Great Recession – a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-53, January.
    5. Vermeulen, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2014. "Net foreign asset (com)position: Does financial development matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 88-106.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paulo José Regis, 2015. "The Sustainability of European External Debt: What have We Learned?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 445-468, August.
    7. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2493 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, "undated". "Global Imbalances and the External Solvency of Nations," Discussion Papers 14/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    9. Ursel Baumann & Georgi Krustev & Bruno Albuquerque, 2014. "Has US Household Deleveraging Ended? A Model-Based Estimate of Equilibrium Debt," Working Papers w201404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, "undated". "Net Foreign Assets, Real Exchange Rates and Net Exports Revisited," Discussion Papers 13/04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    11. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2016. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 106, European Institute, LSE.
    12. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 655-675, September.
    13. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paolo Jose Regis, 2014. "On the changes in the sustainability of European external debt: what have we learned," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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