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On the solvency of nations: Cross-country evidence on the dynamics of external adjustment

  • Durdu, C. Bora
  • Mendoza, Enrique G.
  • Terrones, Marco E.

We test the hypothesis that net foreign asset positions are consistent with external solvency and examine the dynamics of external adjustment using data for 50 countries over the 1970–2006 period. Our analysis adapts Bohn's (2007) error-correction reaction function approach – which tests for a negative long-run relationship between net exports (NX) and net foreign assets (NFA) as a sufficiency condition for the intertemporal budget constraint to hold – to a dynamic panel framework. Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group error-correction estimation yield evidence of a statistically significant, negative response of NX to NFA. Moreover, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the response is largely homogeneous across countries. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the countries with relatively weaker fundamentals need to respond more strongly to the changes in NFA to keep their NFAs on a sustainable path.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 762-780

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:762-780
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4f63x50j, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. James M. Nason and John H. Rogers, 2001. "The Present Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Subjects," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 102, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Marco Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies; An Assessment of the New Merchantilism," IMF Working Papers 07/146, International Monetary Fund.
  4. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep16 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II; Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," IMF Working Papers 06/69, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Fabio Ghironi & Jaewoo Lee & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Working Papers 09-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1446, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Hilary Croke & Steven B. Kamin & Sylvain Leduc, 2005. "Financial market developments and economic activity during current account adjustments in industrial economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 827, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. David Backus & Espen Henriksen & Frederic Lambert & Chris Telmer, 2005. "Current Account Fact and Fiction," 2005 Meeting Papers 115, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-65, January.
  13. Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan David Ostry, 2007. "International Evidenceon Fiscal Solvency; Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?," IMF Working Papers 07/56, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
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