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Debt, Inflation and Central Bank Independence

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  • Fernando Martin

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Abstract

When governments trade-off maximizing general welfare with maximizing their own expenditure, the degree of central bank independence has implications for inflation, taxes and debt. Making the central bank more independent implies that, for any given level debt, inflation and taxes decrease, while debt accumulation increases. In the transition, as debt increases, inflation and taxes revert to their pre-reform levels, due to the higher financial burden. In the long-run, only debt varies significantly. Adding an explicit monetary target does not alter this result, but may still affect how policy responds to cyclical shocks. The model suggests that the debt increase and inflation reduction experienced in the U.S. and several other developed countries in the early 1980s is the combined outcome of increased central bank independence and lower tolerance for inflation by agents.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 1019.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1019
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Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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Cited by:

  1. Blancheton, Bertrand, 2016. "Central bank independence in a historical perspective. Myth, lessons and a new model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 101-107.
  2. BLANCHETON Bertrand, 2015. "Towards a tacit low-degree independence central banking model ?," Cahiers du GREThA 2015-17, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  3. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2015. "Monetary-fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries," Discussion Papers 42/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(03), pages 259-289, December.
  5. Geeta Garg, 2015. "Impact of trilemma indicators on macroeconomic policy: Does central bank independence matter?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-019, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  6. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kliem, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  7. M. Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky & S. Sarferaz, 2015. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction and Fiscal Inflation: A Tale of Three Countries," IWH Discussion Papers 17, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
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