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Fiscal Policy, Housing and Stock Prices

  • António Afonso
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

This paper investigates the link between fiscal policy shocks and movements in asset markets using a Fully Simultaneous System approach in a Bayesian framework. Building on the works of Blanchard and Perotti (2002), Leeper and Zha (2003), and Sims and Zha (1999, 2006), the empirical evidence for the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Italy shows that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics when assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and its impact on asset markets. In addition, the results from a VAR counter-factual exercise suggest that: (i) fiscal policy shocks play a minor role in the asset markets of the U.S. and Germany; (ii) they substantially increase the variability of housing and stock prices in the U.K..; and (iii) government revenue shocks have apparently contributed to an increase of volatility in Italy.

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File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp582008.pdf
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Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2008/58.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp582008
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Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL

Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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  1. Carlo A. Favero, . "How do European monetary and fiscal authorities behave?," Working Papers 214, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  2. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 0991, European Central Bank.
  3. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1997. "Normalization, probability distribution, and impulse responses," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
  10. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
  11. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 12822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1998. "Does monetary policy generate recessions?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Gale, William G. & Orszag, Peter R., 2003. "Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(3), pages 463-85, September.
  15. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1989. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 3206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Anne-Marie Brook, 2003. "Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates: Fiscal Policy and other Drivers," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 367, OECD Publishing.
  17. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  19. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
  20. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
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