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Government decisions and macroeconomic stability: Fiscal policies and financial market fluctuations

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  • Centinaio, Alessandra
  • Pacicco, Fausto
  • Serati, Massimiliano
  • Venegoni, Andrea

Abstract

Since the 2008 Financial crisis, macroeconomic and financial markets' stabilisation policies relied mainly on monetary actions, reducing the ECB's margin of manoeuvre and calling for a major role for fiscal authorities. We investigate the impact of government decisions on financial markets for 11 Eurozone economies (from 1995 to 2021), in the very short run, using an event study, finding a positive (negative) reaction to fiscal expansion (consolidation) announcements and in the short/medium-run, with a Bayesian TVP-FAVAR, identifying cross-country heterogeneities; stronger (weaker) public finances show a direct (indirect) relation between fiscal policies and stock prices and an indirect (direct) one with 10-year bond yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Centinaio, Alessandra & Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2024. "Government decisions and macroeconomic stability: Fiscal policies and financial market fluctuations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pa:s1059056024005914
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103599
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    2. Marina Yu. Malkina, 2024. "Financial contagion in the US, European and Chinese stock markets during global shocks," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 47-67, December.
    3. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2025. "R&D Investment and Financial Stability," Documentos de trabajo 21327, FLAR.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Financial markets; Fiscal; Monetary policies interactions; Event study; TVP VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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