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125 Years of Time-Varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Hardik A. Marfatia

    () (Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, BBH 344G, 5500 N. St. Louis Ave., Chicago, IL 60625, USA)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    () (University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics, 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Box 456005, Las Vegas, NV 89154)

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial markets over a long span of 125 years. Unlike existing studies that mainly focus on monetary policy shocks and model-based identification of fiscal policy shocks, we use a time-varying model to study the effect of fiscal policy with much cleaner and direct identification of fiscal policy shocks. In addition, we extend our analysis by measuring the response volatility in these markets and separately study the effects of good and bad components of volatility. We find significant time-variation in the response of stock and bond market returns and volatility. The overall response of the stock market exceeds that of bond markets, with more pronounced effects in the pre-1950 period than in the last six decades. Fiscal consolidation generates long-term benefits that positively affect financial markets in the latter part of the 20th century, thus providing new insights into the dynamic role of fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2019. "125 Years of Time-Varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Financial Markets," Working Papers 201956, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201956
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
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    5. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Time-Varying impact; Financial returns and risks;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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