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The Fed and the Stock Market: An Identification Based on Intraday Futures Data

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  • D’Amico, Stefania
  • Farka, Mira

Abstract

This article develops a new identification procedure to estimate the contemporaneous relation between monetary policy and the stock market within a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. The approach combines high-frequency data from the futures market with the VAR methodology to circumvent exclusion restrictions and achieve identification. Our analysis casts doubt on VAR models imposing a recursive structure between innovations in policy rates and stock returns. We find that a tightening in policy rates has a negative impact on stock prices and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has responded significantly to movements in the stock market. Estimates are robust to various model specifications.
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  • D’Amico, Stefania & Farka, Mira, 2011. "The Fed and the Stock Market: An Identification Based on Intraday Futures Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 126-137.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:29:i:1:y:2011:p:126-137
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    2. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    3. Anene, Dominic & D'Amico, Stefania, 2017. "A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series WP-2017-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Diez, Federico J. & Presno, Ignacio, 2013. "Domestic and foreign announcements on unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    6. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Furlanetto & Francesca Loria, 2017. "Has the Fed responded to house and stock prices? A time-varying analysis," Working Papers 1713, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    7. Bulut, Mustafa & Karasoy, Hatice Gökçe, 2016. "Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği
      [Transmission Mechanism Under Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Case of Turkey]
      ," MPRA Paper 71215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lutz, Chandler, 2015. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 89-105.
    9. Sylvester Eijffinger & Ronald Mahieu & Louis Raes, 2017. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs Off the Stock Market?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 53-94, February.
    10. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and the dollar: conventional signs, unconventional magnitudes," Working Paper Series 2015-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2017. "When no news is good news – The decrease in investor fear after the FOMC announcement," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 187-199.
    12. Drienko, Jozef & Sault, Stephen J., 2013. "The intraday impact of company responses to exchange queries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4810-4819.
    13. Farka, Mira & DaSilva, Amadeu, 2011. "The fed and the term structure: Addressing simultaneity within a structural VAR model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 935-952.
    14. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2013. "The Effects of Unconventional and Conventional U.S. Monetary Policy on the Dollar," Working Paper Series 2013-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Mandler, Martin, 2006. "Are there gains from including monetary aggregates and stock market indices in the monetary policy reaction function? A simulation study of recent U.S. monetary policy," MPRA Paper 2318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mala Raghavan & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Should ASEAN-5 monetary policy-makers act pre-emptively against stock market bubbles?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1086-1105, March.
    19. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)," Discussion Paper 2012-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Nkwoma, Inekwe John, 2017. "Futures-Based Measures Of Monetary Policy And Jump Risk," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(02), pages 384-405, March.
    21. Pitschner, Stefan, 2013. "Using Financial Markets To Estimate the Macro Effects of Monetary Policy:," Working Paper Series 267, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    22. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement," Working Papers 1731, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

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