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Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area

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  • Cassola, Nuno
  • Morana, Claudio

Abstract

In this paper we study the role of the stock market in the transmission mechanism in the euro area and evaluate whether price stability and financial stability are mutually consistent and complementary objectives. Four major conclusions can be drawn from our work. First, stock prices and more generally, relative asset prices seem to play an important role in the transmission mechanism in the euro area. Second, we do not find any significant, direct impact of stock prices on inflation. These two findings taken together support the view that stock market prices may be important for monetary policy, independently of their direct impact on inflation. Third, permanent productivity shocks are the driving force of the stock market in the long-run and contribute significantly to its cyclical behaviour. Nevertheless, the bulk of cyclical dynamics in the stock market is explained by transitory shocks. Fourth, a monetary policy focused on maintaining price stability in the long-run can contribute also to stock market stability. JEL Classification: C32, O11

Suggested Citation

  • Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2002. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Working Paper Series 119, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2002119
    Note: 334845
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alchian, Armen A & Klein, Benjamin, 1973. "On a Correct Measure of Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 173-191, Part I Fe.
    2. Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Controlling Inflation in a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model with an Application to US Data," Discussion Papers 01-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Stability; Monetary policy transmission mechanism; price stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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