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Uncertainty in the housing market: evidence from US states

Author

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  • Christidou Maria

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, 54006, Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Fountas Stilianos

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, 156 Egnatia Street, 54006, Thessaloniki, Greece, Phone: +302310891774, Fax: +302310891292)

Abstract

Housing is distinct from other financial assets, since it is a durable consumer good for households. Due to the irreversible nature of housing investment, uncertainty should be an important determinant of housing investment. From a theoretical point of view, though, this impact is ambiguous. This paper extends previous empirical work by employing the techniques of bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models in a group of forty-eight US states. In particular, we use data on housing permits as a proxy for housing investment and the house price index for the forty-eight contiguous US states and estimate bivariate GARCH models (BEKK) for each state, in order to obtain proxies of housing investment and house price uncertainty. Moreover, we use the Economic Policy Uncertainty index as an alternative measure of uncertainty. This setup allows us to test for the impact of uncertainty on housing investment growth and house price inflation and examine whether the effects differ across the different states. In general, we find that in most states uncertainty tends to increase housing investment growth and to decrease house price inflation. The cross-state differences in results may be due to variation in the degree of speculation in housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Christidou Maria & Fountas Stilianos, 2018. "Uncertainty in the housing market: evidence from US states," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:22:y:2018:i:2:p:17:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2016-0064
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, MeiChi, 2024. "A greater crisis? Investigating MSA-level housing markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Masud Alam, 2021. "Time Varying Risk in U.S. Housing Sector and Real Estate Investment Trusts Equity Return," Papers 2107.10455, arXiv.org.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark E., 2023. "Is there a national housing market bubble brewing in the United States?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(8), pages 2191-2228, December.
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Uzuner, Gizem & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 114-126.
    6. Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Xin Sheng, 2022. "The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on housing returns and volatility: evidence from US state-level data," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 206-238, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Masud Alam, 2024. "Volatility in U.S. Housing Sector and the REIT Equity Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 505-544, October.
    8. MeiChi Huang, 2025. "Revisiting housing asset pricing: uncertainty and business-cycle factors in US state-level housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(1), pages 1-25, March.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Eric Olson, 2020. "Effect of uncertainty on U.S. stock returns and volatility: evidence from over eighty years of high-frequency data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(16), pages 1305-1311, September.
    10. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Kyei, Clement Kweku & Shivambu, Rinsuna, 2021. "Uncertainty and daily predictability of housing returns and volatility of the United States: Evidence from a higher-order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 200-206.
    11. Oguzhan Cepni & Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "The time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the co-movement of regional housing prices of the United Kingdom," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, December.
    12. Stilianos Fountas & Panagiota Karatasi & Paraskevi Tzika, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Greece: Measuring Uncertainty for the Greek Macroeconomy," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 16(1), pages 80-92.
    13. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
    14. Mehmet Balcilar & Gizem Uzuner & Festus Victor Bekun & Mark E. Wohar, 2023. "Housing price uncertainty and housing prices in the UK in a time-varying environment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 523-549, May.
    15. Janowski, Artur & Renigier-Biłozor, Małgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Chmielewska, Aneta, 2021. "Remote measurement of building usable floor area – Algorithms fusion," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    16. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Christian Pierdzioch & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Machine Learning Predictions of Housing Market Synchronization across US States: The Role of Uncertainty," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 523-545, May.
    17. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Mark E. Wohar, 2022. "Uncertainty and predictability of real housing returns in the United Kingdom: A regional analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1525-1556, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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