IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v16y2008i4p1-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China: 1997–2007

Author

Listed:
  • Chengsi Zhang
  • Hong Pang

Abstract

The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997 and 2007 are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China's improved position in terms of foreign exchange purchases, ignited by huge foreign capital inflows, has effectively induced excess liquidity in China. More importantly, by developing an econometric model for inflation and excess liquidity, the present study demonstrates that excess liquidity has imposed significant pressure on inflation in China over the past 10 years. This finding suggests that excess liquidity in China has not only contributed to the rise in stock prices and the real estate market boom, but also affected the consumer goods market. The potential transmission mechanism of liquidity‐driven inflation and policy implications of the findings of this study are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengsi Zhang & Hong Pang, 2008. "Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China: 1997–2007," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00118.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00118.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00118.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony J. Makin, 2007. "Does China's Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 89-102, May.
    2. Chengsi Zhang, 2007. "Low Inflation, Pass‐through, and a Discrete Inflation‐targeting Framework for Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(2), pages 59-73, March.
    3. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    4. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
    5. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    6. Polleit, Thorsten & Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 2005. "Measures of excess liquidity," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 65, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. ZHANG Chengsi, 2009. "Structural instability of China inflation dynamics," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 4(1), pages 30-45, March.
    2. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Financial Market Turmoil: Implications for Monetary Policy Transmission in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 737-760, June.
    4. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "An analysis of involuntary excess reserves, monetary policy and risk-taking behaviour of Chinese Banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-72.
    5. Zongxin Qian, 2011. "Global Imbalance, Excess Liquidity and Financial Risk in China," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Huang Yiping & Wang Xun & Hua Xiuping, 2010. "What Determine China’s Inflation?," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22770, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-166.
    8. Wim Meeusen, 2011. "Introduction and Outline," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Md Gyasuddin Ansari & Rudra Sensarma, 2022. "What Explains Excess Liquidity of Banks? Empirical Evidence from India," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(4), pages 477-503, December.
    10. Marie-Louise Djigbenou, 2014. "Determinants of Global Liquidity Dynamics:a FAVAR approach," Working Papers hal-00956314, HAL.
    11. Tie Ying Liu & Chi Wei Su & Xu Zhao Jiang & Tsangyao Chang, 2015. "Is There Excess Liquidity in China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 110-126, May.
    12. Chengsi Zhang, 2010. "Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 40-55, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chengsi Zhang, 2009. "Excess Liquidity, Inflation and the Yuan Appreciation: What Can China Learn from Recent History?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 998-1018, July.
    2. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese, 2013. "Monetary policy and real estate prices: a disaggregated analysis for Switzerland," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 469-490, December.
    3. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2011. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1, pages 43-52.
    4. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2012. "Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-70.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0037 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0037, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Ansgar BELKE & Walter ORTH & Ralph SETZER, 2008. "Global Liquidity and House Prices: A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," EcoMod2008 23800010, EcoMod.
    9. Goknur Umutlu & Yilmaz Yildız, 2011. "The Effect of Global Liquidity on Macroeconomic Parameters," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 167181-1671, September.
    10. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Geldpolitik und Vermögensmärkte," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(1), pages 56-65.
    11. Huang Yiping & Wang Xun & Hua Xiuping, 2010. "What Determine China’s Inflation?," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22770, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    12. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    13. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-166.
    14. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    15. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Crude oil prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.
    16. Dietmar Harhoff & Elisabeth Mueller & John Van Reenen, 2014. "What are the Channels for Technology Sourcing? Panel Data Evidence from German Companies," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 204-224, March.
    17. Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten, 2010. "Rethinking evolution, entropy and economics: A triadic conceptual framework for the maximum entropy principle as applied to the growth of knowledge," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 146, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    18. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    19. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," IEER Working Papers 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    20. Ács, Attila, 2014. "Pénzintézeti mérlegadatok monetáris politikai újraértelmezése. A brókerkereskedő szervezetek reálgazdasági és likviditási jelentősége [Reconsidering the role of financial institutions balance sheet," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 166-192.
    21. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:1-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.