IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/45670.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Jiranyakul, Komain

Abstract

Stock market return is one of financial variables that contain information to forecast real activity such as industrial production and real GDP growth. However, it is still controversial that stock market return can have a predictive content on real activity. This paper attempts to investigate the ability of stock market return to predict industrial production growth (or real activity) in Thailand, which is an emerging market economy. The standard causality test and the equal forecast evaluation of nested models are employed. For the purpose of forecasting, the data are divided into two periods: the data for the in-sample and the out-of-sample periods. The test of equal forecasting ability is also used. Using monthly data from January 1993 to December 2011, it is found that the model augmented with stock return variable outperforms the benchmark model in the forecast horizon of two months. The results seem to support the notion that stock market return is a predictor of industrial output growth in the short run. Moreover, the standard Granger causality test using the in-sample data also supports this notion. The findings offers a useful insight to investors, financial managers and policymakers on the role of stock market return in forecasting real economic activity. Specifically, a change in stock market return is a signal for revising investment decision by investors and portfolio managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiranyakul, Komain, 2012. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," MPRA Paper 45670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45670
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45670/1/MPRA_paper_45670.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    3. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
    4. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
    5. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    6. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    10. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    11. George W. Gallinger, 1994. "Causality Tests Of The Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 271-288, June.
    12. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of Real Activity and Stock Returns in an Emerging Market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 263-271, September.
    13. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2011. "The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 124-132, May.
    14. Canova, Fabio & De Nicolo', Gianni, 1995. "Stock returns and real activity: A structural approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 981-1015, May.
    15. Gallinger, George W, 1994. "Causality Tests of the Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 271-288, Summer.
    16. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    18. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    19. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2007. "Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 695-705.
    20. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    21. Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2002. "Investigating the links between growth and real stock price changes with empirical evidence from the G-7 economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 543-575.
    22. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    23. Anthony Aylward & Jack Glen, 2000. "Some international evidence on stock prices as leading indicators of economic activity," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Zainudin, Rozaimah, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Capitalization in Pakistan:Fresh Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks," MPRA Paper 52490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
    2. Komain Jiranyakul, 2013. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 317-328, March.
    3. Ülkü, Numan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Kuzmicheva, Olga, 2017. "Stock market's response to real output shocks in Eastern European frontier markets: A VARwAL model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 140-154.
    4. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    5. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
    6. Ozlem Goktas & Aycan Hepsag, 2011. "Do stock returns lead real economic activity? Evidence from seasonal cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2117-2127.
    7. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS.
    8. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2021. "A tale of tails : New evidence on the growth-return nexus," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    9. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010. "Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.
    10. Numan Ülkü & Kexing Wu, 2023. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 1-25, September.
    11. Aviral K. Tiwari & Claudiu T. Albulescu & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Time-frequency relationship between US output with commodity and asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 227-242, January.
    12. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
    13. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
    14. Numan Ülkü & Duminda Kuruppuarachchi, 2015. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks: Connection Restored but Delayed," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 613-622, December.
    15. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Forecasting growth and inflation in an enlarged euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 405-425.
    16. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2009. "Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1414-1419, November.
    17. Los, Cornelis A., 2006. "System identification in noisy data environments: An application to six Asian stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1997-2024, July.
    18. Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
    19. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2007. "Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 695-705.
    20. Veli Yilanci & Onder Ozgur & Muhammed Sehid Gorus, 2021. "Stock prices and economic activity nexus in OECD countries: new evidence from an asymmetric panel Granger causality test in the frequency domain," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock return; real activity; emerging market; forecasting; causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.