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An Empirical Analysis of Real Activity and Stock Returns in an Emerging Market


  • Mansor H. Ibrahim

    () (Department of Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia)


The present paper analyzes the role of stock market returns as a predictor of real output for a fast-growing emerging market, Malaysia. In the analysis, forecasting equations for 1-, 2-, 4-, and 8-quarter forecasting horizons based on autoregressive distributed lags framework are adopted. From the estimation, we find evidence that stock market returns do contain predictive ability at short-forecasting horizons, especially at less than 4-quarter horizons. Estimating the forecasting models recursively, we note reduction of out-of-sample forecasting evaluation statistics, namely the mean absolute errors (MAE) and the mean squared forecast errors (MSFE), from those obtained from the simple autoregressive (AR) model. More importantly, the null hypothesis of equal predictive accuracy between the model with stock returns as a predictor and the AR model is rejected for the 1-quarter and 2-quarter forecasting horizons by the McCraken’s (2007) out-of-sample-F statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of Real Activity and Stock Returns in an Emerging Market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 263-271, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:40:y:2010:i:2:p:263-271

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    Cited by:

    1. Komain Jiranyakul, 2013. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 317-328, March.
    2. repec:mup:actaun:actaun_2016064010283 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spt:fininv:v:7:y:2018:i:3:f:7_3_3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2012. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," MPRA Paper 45670, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Stock Return; Real GDP Growth; Out-of-Sample Forecasts; Malaysia;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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