Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Capitalization in Pakistan:Fresh Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks
This paper explores the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in case of Pakistan over the period of 1974-2010. We have applied Zivot-Andrews unit root test for integrating properties of the variables and the ARDL bounds testing for cointegration. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by applying the VECM Granger causality approach. Our results revealed that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. Economic growth, inflation, financial development and investment increase stock market development but trade openness decline it. The causality analysis confirms that stock market development is a Granger cause of economic growth, inflation, financial development, investment and trade openness. This paper indicates the importance of trade openness while formulating a comprehensive financial policy.
|Date of creation:||15 Dec 2013|
|Date of revision:||24 Dec 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D & Starr, Ross M, 1996. "Equity Markets, Transactions Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 241-65, May.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee & Andrew F. Newman, 1990.
"Occupational Choice and the Process of Development,"
911, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-98, April.
- Komain Jiranyakul, 2013.
"The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand,"
Asian Journal of Empirical Research,
Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 317-328, March.
- Jiranyakul, Komain, 2012. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," MPRA Paper 45670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
- Ryo Kato, 2003. "Matlab code for Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles," QM&RBC Codes 113, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Riona Arjoon & Mariëtte Botes & Laban K. Chesang & Rangan Gupta, 2011.
"The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices: empirical evidence from South Africa,"
Journal of Business Economics and Management,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 600-613, July.
- Riona Arjoon & Mariette Botes & Laban K. Chesang & Rangan Gupta, 2010. "The Long-Run Relationship between Inflation and Real Stock Prices: Empirical Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 201028, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2011. "Determinants of Stock Market Prices in Namibia," Working Papers 209, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth: An Overview," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 223-39, May.
- Haug, Alfred A, 2002. " Temporal Aggregation and the Power of Cointegration Tests: A Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 399-412, September.
- Ahmet Ozcan, 2012. "The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and ISE Industry Index," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 184-189.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Mehr-un-Nisa & Mohammad Nishat, 2011. "The Determinants of Stock Prices in Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(4), pages 276-291, December.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
- Al-Sharkas, A.A., 2004. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Factors and the Jordanian Stock Market," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 97-114.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Abu N. M. Wahid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "Empirical Psychology Between Wholesale Price And Consumer Price Indices: The Case Of Pakistan," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 537-551.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Summaira, Malik, 2011.
"Foreign direct investment-economic growth nexus: The role of domestic financial development in Portugal,"
34226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Oct 2011.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Nuno Carlos leitão & Summaira Malik, 2011. "Foreign Direct Investment-Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Domestic Financial Development in Portugal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2824-2838.
- Charles Amo Yartey, 2010. "The institutional and macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in emerging economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(21), pages 1615-1625.
- M Mafizur Rahman & M Salahuddin, 2010. "The determinants of economic growth in Pakistan: Does stock market development play a major role?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(2), pages 69-86, September.
- Valeriano F. García & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 2, pages 29-59, May.
- R. I. Udegbunam, 2002. "Openness, Stock Market Development, and Industrial Growth in Nigeria," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 69-92.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
- Sen, Amit, 2003. "On Unit-Root Tests When the Alternative Is a Trend-Break Stationary Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 174-84, January.
- Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Capital Market Imperfections, International Credit Markets, and Nonconvergence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 335-364, April.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & A. B. M. Nasir, 2004. "ARDL Approach to Test the Productivity Bias Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 483-488, 08.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Purna Chandra Padhan, 2007. "The nexus between stock market and economic activity: an empirical analysis for India," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(10), pages 741-753, October.
- Chor Foon Tang, 2009. "Electricity consumption, income, foreign direct investment, and population in Malaysia: New evidence from multivariate framework analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(4), pages 371-382, September.
- Esref Savas BASCI & Süleyman Serdar KARACA, 2013. "The Determinants of Stock Market Index: VAR Approach to Turkish Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 163-171.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.