IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0275708.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is stock market development sensitive to macroeconomic indicators? A fresh evidence using ARDL bounds testing approach

Author

Listed:
  • Abdullah Bin Omar
  • Anis Ali
  • Salma Mouneer
  • Robina Kouser
  • Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan

Abstract

Over the past decades, emerging stock markets have started to significantly contribute to economic growth through mobilizing long-term capital by pooling funds, facilitating savings and investments into profitable projects and improving corporate governance structure. A plethora of empirical studies is devoted to investigate the determinants of different capital markets but due to highly controversial and inconclusive findings about macroeconomic determinants, this study contributes to the body of existing literature by empirically investigating the macroeconomic forces that drive the stock market development of Pakistan from 1980 to 2019. By applying Ng-Perron and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests (to determine the integrating orders of variables) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, our results confirm cointegration among variables and exhibit the significant positive impact of economic growth and banking sector development on stock market development and negative affect of inflation, foreign direct investment and trade openness on it in long run. At the same time, the short run results show a significant relationship of economic growth, inflation and foreign direct investment with stock market development. Our study has some important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah Bin Omar & Anis Ali & Salma Mouneer & Robina Kouser & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2022. "Is stock market development sensitive to macroeconomic indicators? A fresh evidence using ARDL bounds testing approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(10), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0275708
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0275708
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0275708&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0275708?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "The macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in Malaysia: an empirical analysis," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(2), pages 174-193.
    2. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    3. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 43-58, January.
    4. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Matias Braun & Claudio Raddatz, 2004. "Trade liberalization and the politics of financial development," Working Papers 04-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Felicia O. Olokoyo & Oyakhilome W. Ibhagui & Abiola Babajide, 2020. "Macroeconomic indicators and capital market performance: Are the links sustainable?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1792258-179, January.
    8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    9. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2002. "Markets for risk and openness to trade: how are they related?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 369-395, August.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Hicks, J. R., 1969. "A Theory of Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198811633, Decembrie.
    12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    13. DeAngelo, Harry & Rice, Edward M., 1983. "Antitakeover charter amendments and stockholder wealth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 329-359, April.
    14. Hausmann, Ricardo & Fernández-Arias, Eduardo, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1319, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Greenwood, Jeremy & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Financial markets in development, and the development of financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 145-181, January.
    16. Bruce D. Smith & John H. Boyd, 1998. "Capital market imperfections in a monetary growth model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 11(2), pages 241-273.
    17. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce D, 1996. "Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 309-332, September.
    18. Enisan, Akinlo A. & Olufisayo, Akinlo O., 2009. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 162-171.
    19. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1985. "Credit Markets and the Control of Capital," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 133-152, May.
    20. Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D & Starr, Ross M, 1996. "Equity Markets, Transactions Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 241-265, May.
    21. Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April.
    22. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    23. Bhide, Amar, 1993. "The hidden costs of stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-51, August.
    24. Farhang Niroomand & Massomeh Hajilee & Omar M. Al Nasser, 2014. "Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1490-1498, May.
    25. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1997. "Financial Markets, Intermediaries, and Intertemporal Smoothing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 523-546, June.
    26. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
    27. Minier, Jenny A., 2003. "Are small stock markets different?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1593-1602, October.
    28. Levine, Ross, 1991. "Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-1465, September.
    29. Erasmus L. Owusu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2014. "Stock market development and economic growth in Ghana: an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 229-234, March.
    30. Valeriano F. García & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 2, pages 29-59, May.
    31. Ricardo Hausmann & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol?," Research Department Publications 4203, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    32. Valeriano F. Garcia & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 29-59, May.
    33. repec:eme:mfppss:v:33:y:2007:i:7:p:477-489 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. BAYAR, Yılmaz, 2016. "Macroeconomic Determinants Of Stock Market Development: Evidence From Borsa Istanbul," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 20(1), pages 69-89.
    35. Charles Amo Yartey, 2010. "The institutional and macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in emerging economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(21), pages 1615-1625.
    36. Charles Adjasi & Nicholas Biekpe, 2006. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Selected African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 18(1), pages 144-161.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "Determinants of stock market development: a review of the literature," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 143-164, March.
    2. Sin-Yu Ho & N.M. Odhiambo, 2018. "Analysing the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1451265-145, January.
    3. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 76493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sin-Yu Ho & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The macroeconomic drivers of stock market development: evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 185-207, July.
    5. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in South Africa," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 322-342, December.
    6. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 77232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "The macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in Malaysia: an empirical analysis," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(2), pages 174-193.
    8. Candauda Arachchige Saliya, 2022. "Stock market development and nexus of market liquidity: The case of Fiji," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4364-4382, October.
    9. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Determinants of economic growth in Hong Kong: The role of stock market development," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1510718-151, January.
    10. Alessandro Giovannini & Maurizio Iacopetta & Raoul Minetti, 2013. "Financial Markets, Banks, and Growth : Disentangling the links," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 105-147.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Zainudin, Rozaimah, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Capitalization in Pakistan:Fresh Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks," MPRA Paper 52490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2013.
    12. Ndubuisi N. Udemezue & Catherine A. Nneli & Stephen F. Aleke & Frankine C. Okeke, 2024. "Evaluating Sustainable Relationship between Stock Market Development and Nigeria’s Economic Growth," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(1), pages 2449-2470, January.
    13. Statty Stattev, 2009. "Interactions between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Theoretical Approaches and Solutions," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 55-79.
    14. Parmendra Sharma & Eduardo Roca, 2011. "Reâ Designing Financial Systems: A Review of the Role of Stock Markets in Developing Economies," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201120, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    15. Chris Doucouliagos & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "What drives financial development? A Meta-regression analysis [A new database of financial reforms]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 840-868.
    16. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Determinants of the Brazilian Stock Market Development," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(1), pages 53-64, January-M.
    17. Manuel Ennes Ferreira & João Dias & Jelson Serafim, 2022. "Stock Market and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers REM 2022/0228, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Frank Kwabi & Chizindu Wonu & Ernest Ezeani & Andrews Owusu & Vitor Leone, 2025. "Impacts of cross‐border equity portfolio flow and central bank transparency on financial development: The role of economic freedom and international bonds," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1319-1347, April.
    19. Muhammad Shahbaz & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Aviral Tiwari & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi, 2015. "Financial Development and Income Inequality: Is There Any Financial Kuznets Curve in Iran?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 357-382, November.
    20. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0275708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.