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The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy

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  • Gunther Schnabl

    () (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)

Abstract

During the 1997/98 Asian crisis and the 2007-2010 world financial and economic crisis, China has proved to be a stabilizer for East Asia and the world. The paper stresses the crucial role of the dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China. The paper explores the current role of China's nominal exchange rate stabilization as stabilizing factor for China, East Asia and the world economy. Distortions originating in real exchange rate stabilization are identified and are argued to be a risk for global growth perspectives. To prevent further economic and financial turmoil the paper recommends policy coordination between China and the US. The exit from unconventional low interest rate policies in the US combined with the end of real (but not nominal) exchange rate stabilization in China is seen as necessary to stabilize longterm growth in China, East Asia and the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  • Handle: RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:13-2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot Money Inflows in China : How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00111153, HAL.
    2. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters,in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
    6. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2009. "2009 Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB09-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Schnabl, Gunther & Freitag, Stephan, 2010. "Reverse causality in global current accounts," Working Paper Series 1208, European Central Bank.
    8. Eswar S. Prasad, 2009. "Effects of the Financial Crisis on the U.S.-China Economic Relationship," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 223-235, Winter.
    9. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993.
    10. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Galina Hale & Cheryl Long, 2010. "If you try, you’ll get by: Chinese private firms’ efficiency gains from overcoming financial constraints," Working Paper Series 2010-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristina Spantig, 2012. "International monetary policy spillovers in an asymmetric world monetary system - The United States and China," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-33, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    2. Gunther Schnabl & Stephan Freitag, 2012. "Determinants of Global and Intra-European Imbalances," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 25-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
    4. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4649, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Jörg Asmussen & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "Umbruch im Weltwährungssystem: Sollte die Zeit freier Wechselkurse beendet werden?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(07), pages 03-09, April.
    8. Gunther Schnabl & Stephan Freitag, 2012. "Reverse Causality in Global and Intra-European Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 674-690, September.
    9. Tervala, Juha, 2014. "China, the Dollar Peg and U.S. Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 53223, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; dollar peg; structural distortions; international policy coordination; global imbalances;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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