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The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy

  • Gunther Schnabl

    ()

    (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)

During the 1997/98 Asian crisis and the 2007-2010 world financial and economic crisis, China has proved to be a stabilizer for East Asia and the world. The paper stresses the crucial role of the dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China. The paper explores the current role of China's nominal exchange rate stabilization as stabilizing factor for China, East Asia and the world economy. Distortions originating in real exchange rate stabilization are identified and are argued to be a risk for global growth perspectives. To prevent further economic and financial turmoil the paper recommends policy coordination between China and the US. The exit from unconventional low interest rate policies in the US combined with the end of real (but not nominal) exchange rate stabilization in China is seen as necessary to stabilize longterm growth in China, East Asia and the US.

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File URL: http://pubdb.wiwi.uni-jena.de/pdf/wp_hlj13-2010.pdf
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Paper provided by Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena in its series Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series with number 13-2010.

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Date of creation: 10 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:13-2010
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.gfinm.de

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  1. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2009. "2009 Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB09-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. Schnabl, Gunther & Freitag, Stephan, 2010. "Reverse causality in global current accounts," Working Paper Series 1208, European Central Bank.
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Eswar S. Prasad, 2009. "Effects of the Financial Crisis on the U.S.-China Economic Relationship," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 223-235, Winter.
  5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, 07.
  6. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993, May.
  7. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot Money Inflows in China : How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00111153, HAL.
  8. Galina Hale & Cheryl Long, 2010. "If you try, you’ll get by: Chinese private firms’ efficiency gains from overcoming financial constraints," Working Paper Series 2010-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, 08.
  10. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
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