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Determinants of Global and Intra-European Imbalances

Author

Listed:
  • Gunther Schnabl

    () (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)

  • Stephan Freitag

    () (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)

Abstract

The paper discusses global current account imbalances in the context of an asymmetric world monetary system and asymmetric current account developments. It identifies the US and Germany as center countries with rising / high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by current account surpluses of countries stabilizing their exchange rates against the dollar (dollar periphery) and current account deficits of countries stabilizing their exchange rate against the euro or members of the euro area (euro periphery). The paper finds that changes of world current account positions are closely linked to the monetary policy decision patterns both in the centers and peripheries. Whereas in the centers current account positions are affected by monetary policies, in the peripheries exchange rate stabilization cum sterilization matters. In specific, monetary expansion in the US as well as exchange rate stabilization and sterilization policies in the dollar periphery are found to have contributed to global imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl & Stephan Freitag, 2012. "Determinants of Global and Intra-European Imbalances," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 25-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  • Handle: RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:25-2011
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    File URL: http://pubdb.wiwi.uni-jena.de/pdf/wp_hlj25-2011.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2009. "Global Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Operations: Debtor Central Banks Of The Mena Region," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 85-107, September.
    2. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, September.
    3. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    4. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    5. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    7. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2010. "Inter-temporal Savings, Current Account Dynamics and Asymmetric Shocks in a Heterogeneous European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 3279, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
    10. Sajal Lahiri & A. K. M. Mahbub Morshed, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances and Foreign Investment: A Theoretical Analysis of Interrelationships and Causalities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 369-381, May.
    11. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2010. "Rescuing Europe," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(SPECIALIS), pages 1-22, August.
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    14. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate," Scholarly Articles 2792081, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    15. Schnabl Gunther & Freitag Stephan, 2009. "Policy Implications of Global Asymmetric Current Account Positions," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 60(2), pages 103-137, August.
    16. Winkler, Adalbert & Herrmann, Sabine, 2008. "Real convergence, financial markets and the current account - emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Occasional Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.
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    19. Christophe Hurlin & Baptiste Venet, 2008. "Financial Development and Growth: A Re-Examination using a Panel Granger Causality Test," Working Papers halshs-00319995, HAL.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Georg Dettmann, 2014. "Determinants of Internal and External Imbalances within the Euro Area," Working Papers 01/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    2. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "A Germans� dilemma: save the euro or preserve their socio-economic model," Department of Economics Working Papers 1207, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    3. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Schnabl Gunther, 2013. "Die japanischen Lehren für die europäische Krise," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 62(1), pages 3-22, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Imbalances; Intra-European Imbalances; Asymmetric Monetary Policies; Foreign Reserve Accumulation; Sterilization; Granger Causality Tests; Panel Regressions;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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