IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?

  • Samba Mbaye

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

This paper examines empirically one of the most popular views in international economics, yet barely tested: undervaluation of the currency is a "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy. It assesses simultaneously the two closely related implications of the beggar-thy-neighbor view: (i) undervaluation of the domestic currency improves the domestic trade balance; and most importantly, (ii) undervaluation of the domestic currency negatively impacts the other countries' trade balances. Starting from the traditional imperfect substitutes model, we propose an empirical framework allowing the estimation of both the internal and external impacts of currency undervaluation. This framework is then applied to a panel of 62 advanced and emerging markets over the period 1990-2007. The results give strong support to the beggar-thy-neighbor hypothesis. We find that currency undervaluation is robustly and significantly associated with an improvement of the domestic trade balance. We also find that countries that keep their currencies undervalued tend to negatively impact the other countries' trade balances. Finally, our estimates suggest that the external effect of China's renminbi, which has been the focus of the profession thus far, might be "the tip of the iceberg": the latter two results carry over when China's trade data are excluded from the analysis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00761380/document
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00761380.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 05 Dec 2012
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00761380
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00761380
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233403, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  2. Thierry Mayer & Philippe Martin & Nicolas Berman, 2010. "How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications," 2010 Meeting Papers 1338, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Kanta Marwah & Lawrence R. Klein, 1996. "Estimation of J-Curves: United States and Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 523-39, August.
  4. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Méjean, 2009. "Elasticity optimism," Working Papers hal-00362403, HAL.
  5. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "On currency misalignments within the euro area," Post-Print hal-01411722, HAL.
  6. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  7. Eichengreen, Barry, 2007. "Comment on Cheung, Chinn and Fujii, "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 786-787, September.
  8. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 121-136, 02.
  9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, September.
  10. Berthou, Antoine & Berman, Nicolas, 2006. "Financial Market Imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements on exports," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 3, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  11. Dekle, Robert & Ryoo, Heajin, 2003. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Financing Constraints, Hedging, and Exports: Evidence from Firm Level Data," CEI Working Paper Series 2003-13, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  12. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, 06.
  13. Kristin J Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 214-238.
  14. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Ralph Ossa, 2011. "A Global View of Productivity Growth in China," NBER Working Papers 16778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, "undated". "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  16. Paulo Gala & Marcos Rocha, 2011. "Real exchange rates,domestic and foreign savings: the missing link," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 76, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  17. Samba Mbaye, 2013. "Currency undervaluation and growth: Is there a productivity channel ?," Post-Print halshs-00868380, HAL.
  18. Junz, Helen B & Rhomberg, Rudolf R, 1973. "Price Competitiveness in Export Trade Among Industrial Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 412-18, May.
  19. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 3533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, 02.
  21. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1997. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 6307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
  24. Peter Wilson, 2001. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies—Does the J-Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 389-413, October.
  25. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
  26. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, March.
  27. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
  28. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
  29. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 611-626, January.
  30. Ridha Nouira & Khalid Sekkat, 2010. "Desperately Seeking the Positive Impact of Undervaluation on Growth," Working Papers 560, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2010.
  31. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  32. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  33. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  34. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
  35. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Working Papers 200015, CERDI.
  36. Helen B. Junz & Rudolf R. Rhomberg, 1973. "Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
  38. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Ralph Ossa, 2011. "A Global View of Productivity Growth in China," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-166, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00761380. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.