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Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks

Author

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  • Gunther Schnabl

    () (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)

Abstract

The paper identifies based on the monetary overinvestment theories by Wicksell (1898), Mises (1912) and Hayek (1929) monetary policy mistakes in large industrial countries issuing international currencies. It its argued that a neglect towards monetary policy reform in a world dominated by financial markets has led to the erosion of the allocation and signaling function of the interest rate, which has triggered an excessive rise of the government debt and structural distortions in the world economy. The backlash of high government debt levels on monetary policy making is argued to have led to a hysteresis of the liquidity trap. In this context, monetary reform is discussed with respect to the exit from low interest rate and high debt policies, an adaption of monetary policy rules to financial market dominated economic development, and the displacement of the prevalent world monetary system. Enhanced competition between dollar and euro as international currencies moderated by East Asia is proposed to constitute a more stable international monetary system.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  • Handle: RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:26-2012
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    File URL: http://pubdb.wiwi.uni-jena.de/pdf/wp_hlj26-2012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, September.
    2. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "National Monetary Policy, Internatinal Economic Instability and Feeback Effects - An Overinvestment View," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 19-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. DANNE, Christian & SCHNABL, Gunther, 2008. "A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Europäischer geldpolitischer Exit im Zeichen von QE2 und Staatsanleihekäufen der EZB," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(4), pages 147-161.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
    6. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    8. Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2010. "Inter-temporal Savings, Current Account Dynamics and Asymmetric Shocks in a Heterogeneous European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 3279, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "Triebkräfte und Lösungsansätze globaler und europäischer Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2011-23, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    10. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
    11. Roger W. Garrison, 2004. "Overconsumption and Forced Saving in the Mises-Hayek Theory of the Business Cycle," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 323-349, Summer.
    12. Gunther Schnabl & Stephan Freitag, 2012. "Determinants of Global and Intra-European Imbalances," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 25-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    13. Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2010. "Inflation Targeting by Debtor Central Banks in Emerging Market Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 3138, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crises and Asymmetric Policy Responses – An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 382-403, March.
    15. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    16. Lawrence H. White, 2010. "The Rule of Law or the Rule of Central Bankers?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 30(3), pages 451-463, Fall.
    17. George Selgin & Lawrence White, 2005. "Credible Currency: A Constitutional Perspective," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 71-83, January.
    18. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    19. Ronald McKinnon, 2012. "The Fed as the Engine of Worldwide Inflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 109-112, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristina Spantig, 2012. "International monetary policy spillovers in an asymmetric world monetary system - The United States and China," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-33, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    2. Michael Schubert & Sebastian Watzka & Jörg Hinze & Leon Leschus & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Leitzinssenkung auf historischem Allzeittief: Welche Folgen hat die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(16), pages 3-19, August.
    3. Gunther Schnabl, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4249, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "Der Weg in die Nullzins- und Hochverschuldungsfalle," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2013-50, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    5. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "International monetary policy spillovers—can the RMB and the euro challenge the hegemony of the US dollar?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 459-478, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Instability; Credit Cycles; Monetary Policy; Hayek; Mises; Monetary Policy Rules; Monetary Policy Reform; Currency Competition;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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