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Monetary Policies of Large Industrialised Countries, Emerging Market Credit Cycles and Feedback Effects

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  • Andreas Hoffmann
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

This paper explores the link between monetary policies of large industrial countries and international credit cycles. Based on an overinvestment framework, we show that in the prevailing asymmetric world monetary system, monetary policies of large centre countries can fuel credit booms in emerging markets. We argue that the absorption of inflationary pressure by emerging markets during boom periods as well as the fear of feedback effects of crises in emerging markets encourage delayed monetary tightening in centre countries. The paper helps explain asymmetric monetary policy patterns in centre countries and why the current global low interest rate environment is likely to prevail.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "Monetary Policies of Large Industrialised Countries, Emerging Market Credit Cycles and Feedback Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 4723, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4723
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2010. "Inflation Targeting by Debtor Central Banks in Emerging Market Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 3138, CESifo.
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    17. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 1-35, July.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "The Failure of ECB Monetary Policy from a Mises-Hayek Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 6388, CESifo.
    2. Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Adverse Effects of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policies on Investment, Growth and Income Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 5754, CESifo.
    4. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "The role of the financial sector in enhancing economic growth in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 22(1), pages 67-98, June.
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Central Banking and Crisis Management from the Perspective of Austrian Business Cycle Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 6179, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetric world monetary system; credit cycles; monetary policy; financial crisis; contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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