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The Failure of ECB Monetary Policy from a Mises-Hayek Perspective

Author

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  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

The paper analyses the common European monetary policy based on a Mises-Hayek overinvestment framework, which is combined with the theory of optimum currency areas. It shows how since the turn of the millennium a too expansionary monetary policy contributed to unsustainable overinvestment booms in the periphery of the European Monetary Union, and more recently in Germany, dependent on the national fiscal policy stances. It is argued that the ECB´s ultra-loose monetary policy as a crisis therapy puts a drag on long-term growth by conserving distorted economic structures. To preserve political stability a timely exit from the ultra-expansionary monetary policy is postulated.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "The Failure of ECB Monetary Policy from a Mises-Hayek Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 6388, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6388
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6388.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. János Kornai, 2014. "The soft budget constraint," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(supplemen), pages 25-79, November.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Isabel Schnabel, 2014. "Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives," Working Papers 1411, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 31 Oct 2014.
    3. Gita Gopinath & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Loukas Karabarbounis & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2017. "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1915-1967.
    4. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, September.
    6. Andreas Freytag & Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Monetary Policy Crisis Management as a Threat to Economic Order," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 50(2), pages 151-169.
    7. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876.
    8. Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2015. "Measuring the natural rate of interest redux," Working Paper Series 2015-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crises and Asymmetric Policy Responses – An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 382-403, March.
    10. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    11. repec:lmu:muenar:19832 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gunther Schnabl & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 4108, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    14. Pablo Duarte & Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Macroeconomic Policy Making, Exchange Rate Adjustment and Current Account Imbalances in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 531-544, August.
    15. Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 11-96.
    16. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    17. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    18. Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Structural Decline: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(1), pages 124-150, Winter/Sp.
    19. José Abad & Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2013. "Fiscal divergence, current account divergence and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 48(1), pages 51-58, January.
    20. Sekine, Toshitaka & Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Saita, Yumi, 2003. "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 69-92, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Van Den Hauwe, Ludwig, 2017. "Monetary Constitutionalism: Some Recent Developments," MPRA Paper 83052, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Schnabl, Gunther, 2017. "Monetary policy and wandering overinvestment cycles in East Asia and Europe," Working Papers 148, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    3. repec:kap:asiaeu:v:15:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10308-017-0490-5 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hayek; Mises; European Monetary Union; European Central Bank; monetary overinvestment theory; optimum currency areas; fiscal policy; asymmetric shocks; secular stagnation;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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