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Der Weg in die Nullzins- und Hochverschuldungsfalle

  • Gunther Schnabl

    (Universität Leipzig)

Das Papier zeigt den Ursache-Wirkungs-Zusammenhang zwischen expansiver Geldpolitik und Boom-und-Krisen-Zyklen auf Finanzmärkten einschließlich der Rückwirkungen auf die Finanzpolitik und Wachstumsperspektiven auf. Seit den 1990er Jahren reagierten die großen Zentralbanken mit Zinssenkungen auf Krisen in den Finanzmärkten. Die Liquiditätszufuhr in der Krise bewirkte erneute Spekulationsphasen, die beim Platzen der Blasen neue Zinssenkungen notwendig machten. Es wird gezeigt, dass die daraus resultierenden strukturellen Zinssenkungen gegen Null in den großen Industrieländern einen Anreiz zur Erhöhung der Staatsverschuldung gegeben haben. Hohe Staatsverschuldung wird als treibende Größe der Persistenz der Nullzinsfalle sowie für die Zerstörung der Allokations- und Signalfunktion von Zinsen identifiziert. Der Artikel zeigt am Beispiel Japan, wie die resultierende Niedrigzins- und Hochverschuldungsfalle die Wachstumsperspektiven eintrübt.

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Paper provided by Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena in its series Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series with number 2013-50.

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Date of creation: 31 Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:50-2013
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  1. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crises and Asymmetric Policy Responses – An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 382-403, 03.
  2. Kornai, Janos, 1986. "The Soft Budget Constraint," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 3-30.
  3. He, Ping & Huang, Lixin & Wright, Randall, 2008. "Money, banking, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1013-1024, September.
  4. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  5. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets – An Overinvestment View," CESifo Working Paper Series 2100, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Andreas Hoffmann & Holger Zemanek, 2012. "Financial repression and debt liquidation in the USA and the euro area," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 344-351, November.
  8. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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