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Europäischer geldpolitischer Exit im Zeichen von QE2 und Staatsanleihekäufen der EZB


  • Ansgar Belke
  • Gunther Schnabl


A sequence of crises and emergency interest rate cuts has moved global interest rates towards zero and government debt to historical records. We discuss the available options to exit from unconventional monetary policies and unsustainable government debt. First, we shed light on the probability of a coordinated exit from expansionary monetary policies across the Atlantic. Second, we assess the options of coordinating the supranational monetary policy with national fiscal policies in the European Monetary Union. Third, we investigate the quasi-fiscal activities of the European Central Bank in the context of outright government bond purchases and, even more important, within its normal operations. We conclude that-due to the complexity of the coordination task-the coordination of the non-exit is more likely than any coordination of the exit. Wandernde Blasen, Krisen und hektische geldpolitische Rettungsaktionen haben das globale Zinsniveau gegen Null und die Staatsverschuldung in den großen Industrieländern auf historische Rekordstände gebracht. Das Papier analysiert die Optionen für den Exit aus Niedrigzinspolitiken und nicht nachhaltiger Staatsverschuldung im Lichte einer exzessiven geldpolitischen Lockerung in den USA (QE2). Der Exit aus den expansiven Geldpolitiken wird aus drei Perspektiven analysiert. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines koordinierten Exits von Fed und EZB, der koordinierte Exit von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik in der EWU sowie das Auslaufen quasifiskalischer Aktivitäten der EZB. Die Analyse kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass aufgrund der sehr komplexen Herausforderungen die Koordinierung des "Nicht-Exits" wahrscheinlicher als die Koordinierung des Exits ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Europäischer geldpolitischer Exit im Zeichen von QE2 und Staatsanleihekäufen der EZB," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(4), pages 147-161.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:79-4-11

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0135 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011. "Using inflation to erode the US public debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
    5. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2010. "Unconventional Monetary Policies: An Appraisal," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 53-89, September.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Andreas Rees, 2009. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers: Rising Challenges for Central Banks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 922, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Carlo Cottarelli & José Vinãls, 2009. "A Strategy for Renormalizing Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/22, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jörg Asmussen & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "Umbruch im Weltwährungssystem: Sollte die Zeit freier Wechselkurse beendet werden?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(07), pages 03-09, April.
    2. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

    More about this item


    Monetary policy; fiscal policy; financial crisis; international policy coordination; exit;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy


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