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Financial Crisis, Global Liquidity and Monetary Exit Strategies

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  • Ansgar Belke

Abstract

We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-by-step rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy. Price stability should take precedence in all decisions. Due to vagabonding global liquidity, there is a strong case for globally coordinating monetary exit strategies. Given unsurmountable practical problems of coordinating exit with asymmetric country interests, however, the ECB should go ahead - perhaps joint with some Far Eastern economies. Coordination of monetary and fiscal exit would undermine ECB independence and is also technically out of reach within the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Financial Crisis, Global Liquidity and Monetary Exit Strategies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 995, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp995
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Belke, Ansgar & Goecke, Matthias & Guenther, Martin, 2009. "When Does It Hurt? The Exchange Rate ""Pain Threshold"" for German Exports," Ruhr Economic Papers 148, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    3. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2009. "Looking forward: exiting unconventional monetary policy," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32960, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rockett, Katharine E, 1988. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 318-340, June.
    6. Jean-Claude Trichet, 2009. "The ECB's Enhanced Credit Support," CESifo Working Paper Series 2833, CESifo.
    7. Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
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    Cited by:

    1. Treu, Johannes, 2010. "Anmerkungen zur möglichen geldpolitischen Exit-Strategie der EZB," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 04/2010, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exit strategies; international policy coordination and transmission; open market operations; unorthodox monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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