When Does It Hurt? The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports
This paper deals with the impact of the $/Euro exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our main aim is to identify "pain thresholds" for German exporters. We rely on a non-linear model according to which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR go beyond a kind of "play area (analogous to a mechanical play). We implement an algorithm describing play-hysteresis into a regression framework. A unique "pain threshold" of the $/Euro exchange rate does not exist, since the borders of the play area and, thus, also the "pain threshold" (as the upper border) depend on the historical path of the whole process. We come up with an estimate of a play area width of 24 US dollar cent per euro. At the end of our estimation period, the previous exchange rate movements had shifted the upper bound of the play area to about 1.55 US dollar per euro. In our interpretation, this is the current "pain threshold", where a strong spurt reaction of exports to a further appreciation of the euro is expected to start.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Darby, Julia & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ireland, Jonathan & Piscitelli, Laura, 1998.
"The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
- Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
- Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004.
"Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
- Campa, José Manuel, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Trade: How Important is Hysteresis in Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Campa, Jose M., 2000. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," IESE Research Papers D/427, IESE Business School.
- Godart, Olivier N. & Görg, Holger & Görlich, Dennis, 2009.
"Back to normal? The future of global production networks after the crisis,"
Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy
32840, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Godart, Olivier N. & Görg, Holger & Görlich, Dennis, 2009. "Back to normal? The future of global production networks after the crisis," Kiel Policy Brief 9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-13, November.
- Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
- Kerstin Stahn, 2007. "Has the Export Pricing Behaviour of German Enterprises Changed? Empirical Evidence from German Sectoral Export Prices," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 227(3), pages 295-329, June.
- I. Agur, 2003. "Trade-volume hysteresis: an investigation using aggregate data," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 740, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
- Cross, Rod, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Discontinuous Adjustment: Selective Memory of Non-dominated Extrema," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 212-21, May.
- Andrew Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 2001.
"Export entry and exit by German firms,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 105-123, March.
- Gocke, Matthias, 2002. " Various Concepts of Hysteresis Applied in Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 167-88, April.
- Richard Baldwin, 1989. "Sunk-Cost Hysteresis," NBER Working Papers 2911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2004.
"Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1126, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, 05.
- Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices," NBER Working Papers 2483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.