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When does it hurt? The exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Göcke, Matthias
  • Guenther, Martin

Abstract

This paper deals with the impact of the $/€ exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our main aim is to identify 'pain thresholds' for German exporters. We rely on a non-linear model according to which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR go beyond a kind of 'play' area (analogous to a mechanical play). We implement an algorithm describing play-hysteresis into a regression framework. A unique 'pain threshold' of the $/€ exchange rate does not exist, since the borders of the play area and, thus, also the 'pain threshold' (as the upper border) depend on the historical path of the whole process. We come up with an estimate of a play area width of 24 US dollar cent per euro. At the end of our estimation period, the previous exchange rate movements had shifted the upper bound of the play area to about 1.55 US dollar per euro. In our interpretation, this is the current 'pain threshold', where a strong spurt reaction of exports to a further appreciation of the euro is expected to start.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Guenther, Martin, 2009. "When does it hurt? The exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports," Discussion Papers 45, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeudps:45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar, 2010. "Financial Crisis, Global Liquidity and Monetary Exit Strategies," Ruhr Economic Papers 183, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2012. "Doomsday for the Euro Area: Causes, Variants and Consequences of Breakup," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Rod Cross, 2014. "Unemployment: natural rate epicycles or hysteresis?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 136-148, September.
    4. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
    5. Thi-Ngoc Anh NGUYEN & SATO Kiyotaka, 2018. "Firm Predicted Exchange Rates and Nonlinearities in Pricing-to-Market," Discussion papers 18071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Financial Crisis, Global Liquidity and Monetary Exit Strategies," Ruhr Economic Papers 0183, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Michał Brzozowski & Grzegorz Tchorek, 2017. "Exchange Rate Risk as an Obstacle to Export Activity," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 115-141.
    8. Nguyen, Thi-Ngoc Anh & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2019. "Firm predicted exchange rates and nonlinearities in pricing-to-market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Paul J.J. Welfens & Tony Irawan, 2014. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment: New Theoretical Approach and Empirical Findings for US Exports and European Exports," EIIW Discussion paper disbei204, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    10. David Leuwer & Bernd Süssmuth, 2013. "The Exchange Rate Susceptibility of Some European Core Industries and the Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 4253, CESifo.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0183 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate movements; play hysteresis; modelling techniques; switching regression; export demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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