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Doomsday for the Euro Area: Causes, Variants and Consequences of Breakup

  • Ansgar Belke

    ()

    (Department for Macroeconomics, DIW Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany
    Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Universitätsstraße 12, 45117 Essen, Germany)

  • Florian Verheyen

    (Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Universitätsstraße 12, 45117 Essen, Germany)

In this paper we describe the genesis of a doomsday scenario and discuss potential causes and motivations for a breakup of the euro area. For this purpose, we differentiate between the departure of weak and strong countries, and examine the impact of the reintroduction of a national currency on domestic debt, the domestic banking sector, EU membership and the freedom of trade. We also briefly analyze the social and political costs of the accompanying social disorder.

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Article provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal International Journal of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 1 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 1-15

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Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:1-15:d:18753
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  1. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Guenther, Martin, 2009. "When does it hurt? The exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports," Discussion Papers 45, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  3. Fidrmuc, J. & Horváth, J., 1998. "Stability of Monetary Unions : Lessons from the Break-Up of Czechoslovakia," Discussion Paper 1998-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
  5. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2011. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3604, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Barry Eichengreen, 2010. "The Breakup of the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 11-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2004. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," IZA Discussion Papers 1126, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2002. "Monetary integration in the Southern Cone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 323-349, December.
  9. Ansgar Belke & Barbara Styczynska, 2004. "The Allocation of Power in the Enlarged ECB Governing Council: An Assessment of the ECB Rotation Model," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 242/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  10. Alcidi, Cinzia & Giovannini, Alessandro & Gros, Daniel, 2012. "‘Grexit’: Who would pay for it?," CEPS Papers 6977, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  11. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2011. "Ramifications of Debt Restructuring on the Euro Area: The Example of Large European Economies' Exposure to Greece," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1141, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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