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‘Grexit’: Who would pay for it?

Author

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  • Alcidi, Cinzia
  • Giovannini, Alessandro
  • Gros, Daniel

Abstract

The eurozone countries are currently sitting on an aggregate exposure to Greece exceeding €300 billion. If the country were to exit the eurozone, it would certainly not be able to service its debt in the short run when the exchange rate overshoots. Over the longer run, however, the exchange rate is likely to return to a longer-run equilibrium and growth is likely to slowly resume closing the output gap. Moreover, exports are likely to grow by more than GDP, thus increasing over time the capacity of the country to service foreign debt. Therefore, the authors conclude, whether or not an exit from the eurozone is followed by default on the official debt depends decisively on the willingness (and ability) of Greece’s European partners to wait and finance the bridge between the short and the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Alcidi, Cinzia & Giovannini, Alessandro & Gros, Daniel, 2012. "‘Grexit’: Who would pay for it?," CEPS Papers 6977, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:6977
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    File URL: http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/book/2012/05/PB272%20CA%20AG%20%20DG%20Cost%20of%20Grexit.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dermot Hodson, 2015. "Eurozone Governance: Deflation, Grexit 2.0 and the Second Coming of Jean-Claude Juncker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53, pages 144-161, September.
    2. Győrffy, Dóra, 2013. "Crisis Management in the EU, Prospects for the De-politicisation of Economic Policy," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 58(2), pages 119-132.
    3. C. J. Polychroniou, 2012. "The Greek Crisis: Possible Costs and Likely Outcomes of a Grexit," Economics Policy Note Archive 12-07, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Győrffy, Dóra, 2014. "Válság és válságkezelés Görögországban. A puha költségvetési korlát szerepe a gazdasági összeomlásban [Crisis and crisis management in Greece. The role of soft budget constraints in the economic co," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 27-52.
    5. Fritz Breuss, 2012. "EU-Mitgliedschaft Österreichs. Eine Evaluierung in Zeiten der Krise," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45578.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2012. "Doomsday for the Euro Area: Causes, Variants and Consequences of Breakup," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, July.
    7. Klaus Weyerstrass & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein, 2013. "Euro Area Scenarios and their Economic Consequences for Slovenia and Serbia," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 11(4 (Winter), pages 323-351.

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