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Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring

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  • Consiglio, Andrea

    (University of Palermo)

  • Zenios, Stavros A.

    (University of Cyprus nd University of PA)

Abstract

Debt restructuring is gaining acceptance as a policy tool for resolving sovereign debt crises. In this paper we propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for the risk management of re-profiling sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt are used to define a risk metric--conditional Debt-at-Risk--for the tail of debt-to-GDP ratios, and a multi-period stochastic programming model optimizes the expected cost of financing a debt structure, subject to limits on the risk. The model handles important technical aspects of debt restructuring: it collects all debt issues in a common framework, and can include embedded options and contingent claims, multiple currencies and step-up or linked contractual features. Alternative debt profiles are then analyzed for their cost vs risk tradeoffs. With a suitable re-calculation of the efficient frontier, debt sustainability of a given debt profile can then be ascertained. The model is applied to two stylized examples drawn from an IMF publication and from the Cyprus debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2014. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Working Papers 14-10, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Aitor Erce & Timothy Uy, 2020. "Official sector lending during the euro area crisis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 667-705, July.
    2. Corsetti, G. & Erce, A. & Uy, T., 2017. "Official Sector Lending Strategies During the Euro Area Crisis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1730, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2015. "The Case for Contingent Convertible Debt for Sovereignst," Working Papers 15-13, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    4. Andrea Consiglio & Michele Tumminello & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt," Journal of Enterprising Culture (JEC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-36, December.
    5. Guzman Martin & Heymann Daniel, 2015. "The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis: Issues and Problems," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 387-404, December.
    6. Martin Guzman & Domenico Lombardi, 2018. "Assessing the Appropriate Size of Relief in Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2018-26, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    7. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2018. "Contingent Convertible Bonds for Sovereign Debt Risk Management," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, June.
    8. Marialena Athanasopoulou & Andrea Consiglio & Aitor Erce & Angel Gavilan & Edmund Moshammer & Stavros A. Zenios, 2019. "Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions," Globalization Institute Working Papers 367, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Wei Cui, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Delayed Capital Liquidation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1683-1742.
    10. Ruicheng Yang & Li Li & Qi Jiang & Ji Qi, 2022. "Optimal bond issuance with cost and liquidity constraints for Chinese local governments: a multi-period stochastic programming approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2605-2632, November.
    11. Pablo A. Gluzmann & Martin M. Guzman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2018. "An Analysis of Puerto Rico's Debt Relief Needs to Restore Debt Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 25256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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