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An Analysis of Puerto Rico's Debt Relief Needs to Restore Debt Sustainability

Author

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  • Pablo A. Gluzmann
  • Martin M. Guzman
  • Joseph E. Stiglitz

Abstract

This paper makes two contributions. First, we examine the macroeconomic implications of Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Plan that was certified in March 2017 for fiscal years 2017-18 to 2026-27. Second, we perform a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) that incorporates the expected macroeconomic dynamics implied by the Fiscal Plan in order to compute Puerto Rico’s debt restructuring needs. We detect a number of flawed assumptions in the Fiscal Plan that lead to an underestimation of its contractionary effects on the island’s economic activity. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the expected macroeconomic dynamics implied by the plan that allows us to construct more realistic scenarios of Puerto Rico’s debt restructuring needs. We show that the island’s current debt position is unsustainable, and compute the necessary debt relief to restore sustainability under different sets of assumptions. The paper offers general insights for performing a macro-consistent DSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo A. Gluzmann & Martin M. Guzman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2018. "An Analysis of Puerto Rico's Debt Relief Needs to Restore Debt Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 25256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25256
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    Cited by:

    1. Fatima Espinoza Vasquez & Shannon M. Oltmann, 2023. "Information precarity and the agentic practices of marginalized communities: Puerto Rican activists addressing the crisis before, during, and after Hurricane Maria," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 74(5), pages 517-530, May.
    2. Caraballo-Cueto Jose & Lara Juan, 2017. "Deindustrialization and Unsustainable Debt in Middle-Income Countries: The Case of Puerto Rico," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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