IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijtafx/v21y2018i08ns0219024918500498.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt

Author

Listed:
  • ANDREA CONSIGLIO

    () (Department of Economics, Business & Statistics, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90145 Palermo, Italy)

  • MICHELE TUMMINELLO

    () (Department of Economics, Business & Statistics, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90145 Palermo, Italy)

  • STAVROS A. ZENIOS

    (#x2020;Department of Accounting & Finance, University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, CY-1678 Nicosia, Cyprus3Wharton Financial Institutions Center, University of Pennsylvania, USA4Non-Resident Fellow, Bruegel, Belgium)

Abstract

We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses the pricing model in a Longstaff–Schwartz American option pricing framework to compute future state contingent S-CoCo prices for risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. Numerical results are reported using S-CoCo designs for Greece, Italy and Germany with both the pricing and contingent pricing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Consiglio & Michele Tumminello & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-36, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:21:y:2018:i:08:n:s0219024918500498
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024918500498
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024918500498
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    3. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2018. "Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 137-155.
    4. Rosella Castellano & Luisa Scaccia, 2014. "Can CDS indexes signal future turmoils in the stock market? A Markov switching perspective," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 285-305, June.
    5. John M. Mulvey & Stavros A. Zenios, 1994. "Capturing the Correlations of Fixed-income Instruments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(10), pages 1329-1342, October.
    6. McDonald, Robert L., 2013. "Contingent capital with a dual price trigger," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 230-241.
    7. Andrea Consiglio & Somayyeh Lotfi & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit swap markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 5-33, July.
    8. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2015. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 181-213, December.
    9. Barkbu, Bergljot & Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 2012. "Financial crises and the multilateral response: What the historical record shows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 422-435.
    10. Charles W. Calomiris & Richard J. Herring, 2013. "How to Design a Contingent Convertible Debt Requirement That Helps Solve Our Too-Big-to-Fail Problem," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 25(2), pages 39-62, June.
    11. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    12. Damiano Brigo & Aurélien Alfonsi, 2005. "Credit default swap calibration and derivatives pricing with the SSRD stochastic intensity model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 29-42, January.
    13. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    14. Badaoui, Saad & Cathcart, Lara & El-Jahel, Lina, 2013. "Do sovereign credit default swaps represent a clean measure of sovereign default risk? A factor model approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2392-2407.
    15. Jeffery D Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2003. "The credit spread puzzle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    16. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    17. Eyssell, Thomas & Fung, Hung-Gay & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2013. "Determinants and price discovery of China sovereign credit default swaps," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Michael H. Schneider & Stavros A. Zenios, 1990. "A Comparative Study of Algorithms for Matrix Balancing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 439-455, June.
    19. Brendan O'Donoghue & Matthew Peacock & Jacky Lee & Luca Capriotti, 2014. "A Spread-Return Mean-Reverting Model For Credit Spread Dynamics," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03), pages 1-14.
    20. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    21. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Giacometti, Rosella & Tsuchida, Naoshi, 2016. "Factor decomposition of the Eurozone sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-23.
    22. Eduardo Borensztein & Paolo Mauro, 2004. "The case for GDP-indexed bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(38), pages 165-216, April.
    23. Brooke, Martin & Pienkowski, Alex & Mendes, Rhys & Santor, Eric, 2013. "Financial Stability Paper No 27: Sovereign Default and State-Contingent Debt," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 27, Bank of England.
    24. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    25. Martin Brooke & Rhys R. Mendes & Alex Pienkowski & Eric Santor, 2013. "Sovereign Default and State-Contingent Debt," Discussion Papers 13-3, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2018. "Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 137-155.
    2. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2015. "The Case for Contingent Convertible Debt for Sovereignst," Working Papers 15-13, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2018. "Contingent Convertible Bonds for Sovereign Debt Risk Management," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:21:y:2018:i:08:n:s0219024918500498. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tai Tone Lim). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.