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Price Discovery between Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and Bond Yield Spreads of Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Nan Li

    (Associate Professor of Finance, Department of Business and Economics, California University of Pennsylvania, 250 University Avenue, California, PA 15419, USA. E-mail: linan20012001@yahoo.com)

  • Alex YiHou Huang

    (Assistant Professor, Department of Finance, Yuan Ze University, 135 Yuan-Tung Road, Chung-Li, Taoyuan 320, Taiwan. E-mail: huang@saturn.yzu.edu.tw)

Abstract

Given the vast growth in credit default swap (CDS) market over the last few years, a dramatic improvement is projected in pricing discovery of sovereign CDS as well as its interaction with the underlying bond markets. In this article, a recent comprehensive sample of 20 sovereign CDS spreads, along with their underlying bonds, is examined for the pricing equilibrium for emerging markets. On the basis of the tests of vector error correction model and Granger causality, and by comparing with prior studies, this article finds that sovereign CDS market has served as more significant tool in measuring sovereign credit risk than before.

Suggested Citation

  • Nan Li & Alex YiHou Huang, 2011. "Price Discovery between Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and Bond Yield Spreads of Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(2), pages 197-225, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:10:y:2011:i:2:p:197-225
    DOI: 10.1177/097265271101000203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
    5. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    6. Haibin Zhu, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 211-235, June.
    7. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Forte, Santiago, 2006. "Credit spreads: theory and evidence about the information content of stocks, bonds and cdss," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063310, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    8. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    9. Stock, Duane & Schrems, Edward L., 1984. "Return and price volatility of bonds with different credit risk," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 291-306, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evgenia Grigoryeva, 2021. "Determinants of Russia’s Sovereign Risk," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(4), pages 74-97, December.
    2. Andrea Consiglio & Michele Tumminello & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt," Journal of Enterprising Culture (JEC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-36, December.
    3. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    4. Zubair Ali Raja & William J. Procasky & Renee Oyotode-Adebile, 2020. "The Relative Role of Sovereign CDS and Bond Markets in Efficiently Pricing Emerging Market Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(3), pages 296-325, December.
    5. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    7. Nicoló Andrea Caserini & Paolo Pagnottoni, 2022. "Effective transfer entropy to measure information flows in credit markets," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(4), pages 729-757, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL Classification: G10; JEL Classification: G13; JEL Classification: F30; Credit default swaps; bond yield spreads; vector error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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