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Pricing sovereign contingent convertible debt

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  • Andrea Consiglio
  • Michele Tumminello
  • Stavros A. Zenios

Abstract

We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz American option pricing framework to compute future state contingent S-CoCo prices for risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. Numerical results are reported using S-CoCo designs for Greece, Italy and Germany with both the pricing and contingent pricing models.

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  • Andrea Consiglio & Michele Tumminello & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Pricing sovereign contingent convertible debt," Papers 1804.01475, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1804.01475
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    Cited by:

    1. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2018. "Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 137-155.
    2. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2018. "Contingent Convertible Bonds for Sovereign Debt Risk Management," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Andrea Consiglio & Somayyeh Lotfi & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit swap markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 5-33, July.
    4. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Francisco Roch, 2024. "Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1096, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2015. "The Case for Contingent Convertible Debt for Sovereignst," Working Papers 15-13, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    6. Philippe Oster, 2020. "Contingent Convertible bond literature review: making everything and nothing possible?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 343-381, December.

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