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Pricing and Hedging GDP-Linked Bonds in Incomplete Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Consiglio, A.
  • Zenios, S. A.

Abstract

We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country’s GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear programming duality we compute also the risk premium. The model applies to coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds, and allows the analysis of bonds with different design parameters (coupon, target GDP growth rate, and maturity). We calibrate for UK and US instruments, and carry out sensitivity analysis of prices and risk premia to the risk factors and bond design parameters. We also compare coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds.
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Suggested Citation

  • Consiglio, A. & Zenios, S. A., 2017. "Pricing and Hedging GDP-Linked Bonds in Incomplete Markets," Working Papers 17-02, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:upafin:17-02
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    Cited by:

    1. Mouabbi, Sarah & Renne, Jean-Paul & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2024. "Debt-stabilizing properties of GDP-linked securities: A macro-finance perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Jean-Marc Fournier & Jakob Lehr, 2018. "Issuing GDP-linked bonds: Supply and demand can match," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1500, OECD Publishing.
    3. Nicolas Carnot & Stéphanie Pamies Sumner, 2017. "GDP-linked Bonds: Some Simulations on EU Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 073, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Andrea Consiglio & Michele Tumminello & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-36, December.
    5. Pina, Gonçalo, 2024. "State-contingent debt with lender risk aversion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 180-189.
    6. Harris Ntantanis & Lawrence Pohlman, 2020. "Market implied GDP," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 636-646, December.
    7. Dahlen, Niklas & Fehrenkötter, Rieke & Schreiter, Maximilian, 2024. "The new bond on the block — Designing a carbon-linked bond for sustainable investment projects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 316-325.
    8. Kalamov, Zarko Y. & Zimmermann, Karl J., 2023. "GDP-linked bonds and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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