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Can CDS indexes signal future turmoils in the stock market? A Markov switching perspective

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  • Rosella Castellano

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  • Luisa Scaccia

Abstract

Single-name Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are considered the main providers of direct information related with a reference entity’s creditworthiness and, for this reason, they have often been the core of news on the current financial crisis. The academic research has focused mainly on the capacity of CDS in anticipating agencies’ official rating changes and—in this respect—on their superior signalling power, compared to bond and stock markets. The aim of this work is, instead, to investigate the ability of fluctuations in CDS indexes in anticipating the occurrence of stock market crises. Our goal is to show that CDS indexes may provide investors and institutions with early warning signals of financial distresses in the stock market. We make use of a Markov switching model with states characterized by increasing levels of volatility and compare the times in which the first switch in a high volatility state occurs, respectively, in CDS and stock market index quotes. The data set consists of daily closing quotes for 5 years CDS and stock market index prices, covering the time period from 2004 to 2010. In order to capture possible geographic differences in CDS index capacity of foreseeing stock market distresses, data referring to two different regions, Europe and United States, are analyzed. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Rosella Castellano & Luisa Scaccia, 2014. "Can CDS indexes signal future turmoils in the stock market? A Markov switching perspective," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 285-305, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:22:y:2014:i:2:p:285-305
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-013-0330-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Consiglio, Andrea & Tumminello, Michele & Zenios, Stavros A., 2016. "Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt," Working Papers 16-05, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    2. repec:eee:intfin:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:114-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Marcel Ausloos & Rosella Castellano & Roy Cerqueti, 2016. "Regularities and Discrepancies of Credit Default Swaps: a Data Science approach through Benford's Law," Papers 1603.01103, arXiv.org.
    4. Sinan Esen & Feyyaz Zeren & Halil Şimdi, 2015. "CDS and Stock Market: Panel Evidence Under Cross-Section Dependency," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 31-46.

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