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The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis: Issues and Problems

Author

Listed:
  • Martín Guzmán

    (Columbia University - Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires - UBA - CONICET)

  • Daniel Heymann

    (Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires - UBA - CONICET)

Abstract

This paper reviews the IMF DSA (Debt Sustainability Analysis) framework. We first examine the concept of debt sustainability, and argue that the evaluation exercise necessarily entails putting into question market expectations embodied in yield spreads. When the views of the analyst on the capacity of debt repayment differ from the ones reflected in market interest rate premiums, the use of market interest rates for assessing debt sustainability leads to an inconsistency that will in turn bias the assessment. We then show that IMF projections for assessing debt sustainability have been repeatedly biased, which may have contributed to distort the timing of sovereign debt restructurings and the consequent processes of renegotiation. We conclude with a discussion on how the existing DSA framework could be improved.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Guzmán & Daniel Heymann, 2015. "The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis: Issues and Problems," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2015-9, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    • Handle: RePEc:ake:iiepdt:20159
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2015. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 181-213, December.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Heymann & Paulo Daniel Pascuini, 2018. "On The (In)Consistency of Re Modeling," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2018-28, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    2. Rosario Bustillo & Tomás A. Marinozzi, 2022. "Argentina vs Holdouts. The Complete Saga (2005-2016)," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 831, Universidad del CEMA.
    3. Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli & Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe, 2019. "Does Public Debt Produce a Crowding Out Effect for Public Investment in the EU?," Working Papers 36, European Stability Mechanism.
    4. Martin Guzman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 2020. "Towards a dynamic disequilibrium theory with randomness," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 621-674.
    5. Martin Guzman & Domenico Lombardi, 2018. "Assessing the Appropriate Size of Relief in Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2018-26, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    6. Baqir, Reza & Diwan, Ishac & Rodrik, Dani, 2023. "Dealing with the new wave of debt overhangs: A Framework to Evaluate Economic Adjustment-Cum-Debt Restructuring Packages," FDL Policy Notes 2301, CEPREMAP.
    7. Juan Brichetti & Daniel Heymann & Pedro Juarros & Gustavo Montero, 2019. "Expectations, Coordination Failures and Macro Crises," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2019-46, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    8. Heymann Daniel & Brichetti Juan Pablo & Juarros Pedro & Montero Gustavo, 2020. "Expectations, Coordination Failures and Macro Crises," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2015. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 181-213, December.
    10. Igor Yu. Arlashkin, 2021. "Clustering of Russian Regions by Level of Debt Sustainability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 108-124, October.
    11. Schwarcz Steven L., 2015. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Model-Law Approach," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 343-385, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Debt Sustainability; Sovereign Debt Restructuring; International Monetary Fund;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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