IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/develp/v67y2024i3d10.1057_s41301-025-00421-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Critical Analysis of DSA Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Gaudin

    (Finance for Development Lab)

  • Brendan Harnoys Vannier

    (Finance for Development Lab)

  • Martin Kessler

    (Finance for Development Lab)

Abstract

In this article, we construct a new database on 606 Debt Sustainability Assessments (DSAs) published for 68 Low Income Countries over 2013–2023, a period covering the last two methodology updates. We study associated forecast errors to account for IMF and WB biases given their central role in the perception of countries‘ performances. The recent methodological change does not display improvement in projection accuracy. DSAs display a tendency for optimism when projecting public and publicly guaranteed debt ratios (realized ratios are higher than projected). DSAs perform relatively better for Small Islands Developing States. Circumstantial determinants (IMF programmes or recession) deepen optimism biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Gaudin & Brendan Harnoys Vannier & Martin Kessler, 2024. "A Critical Analysis of DSA Projections," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 67(3), pages 233-247, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:develp:v:67:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1057_s41301-025-00421-1
    DOI: 10.1057/s41301-025-00421-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41301-025-00421-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41301-025-00421-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:develp:v:67:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1057_s41301-025-00421-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.