IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rmn/wpaper/201313.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exports and Capacity Constraints – A Smooth Transition Regression Model for Six Euro Area Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Anne Oeking
  • Ralph Setzer

Abstract

Traditional specifications of export equations incorporate foreign demand as a demand pull factor and the real exchange rate as a relative price variable. However, such standard export equations have failed to explain the export performance of euro area countries during the crisis period. In particular, the significant gains in export market shares in a number of vulnerable euro area crisis countries did not coincide with an appropriate improvement in price competitiveness. This paper argues that, under certain conditions, firms consider export activity as a substitute of serving domestic demand. The strength of the link between domestic demand and exports is dependent on capacity constraints. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests domestic demand pressure and capacity constraint restrictions as additional variables of a properly specified export equation. As an innovation to the literature, we assess the empirical significance through the logistic and the exponential variant of the non-linear smooth transition regression model. In the first case, we differentiate between positive and negative changes in capacity utilization and in the second case between small and large changes of the same transition variable. We find that domestic demand developments are relevant for the short-run dynamics of exports when capacity utilization is low. For some countries, we also find evidence that the substitution effect of domestic demand on exports turns out to be stronger the larger is the deviation of capacity utilization from its average value over the cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Anne Oeking & Ralph Setzer, 2013. "Exports and Capacity Constraints – A Smooth Transition Regression Model for Six Euro Area Countries," ROME Working Papers 201313, ROME Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rome-net.org/RePEc/rmn/wpaper/rome-wp-2013-13.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berman, Nicolas & Berthou, Antoine & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2015. "Export dynamics and sales at home," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 298-310.
    2. Faini, Riccardo, 1994. "Export supply, capacity and relative prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 81-100.
    3. Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 479-492.
    4. Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 75-90.
    5. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    6. Sharma, Kishor, 2003. "Factors determining India's export performance," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 435-446.
    7. Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 75-90.
    8. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    9. Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 1980. "Domestic Demand Pressure, Relative Prices and the Exports Supply Equation-More Empirical Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 443-450, November.
    10. Cardoso, Ana Rute & Guimaraes, Paulo & Portugal, Pedro, 2012. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Sex Discrimination," IZA Discussion Papers 7109, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. JaeBin Ahn & Alexander McQuoid, 2013. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications," Working Papers 1301, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    12. Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 57-67.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, February.
    14. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    15. Artus, Jacques R., 1973. "The short-run effects of domestic demand pressure on export delivery delays for machinery," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 21-36.
    16. Juan A. Máñez & María E. Rochina-Barrachina & Juan A. Sanchis, 2008. "Sunk Costs Hysteresis in Spanish Manufacturing Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 272-294.
    17. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    18. Andrew Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 2001. "Export entry and exit by German firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(1), pages 105-123, March.
    19. Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1173-1189.
    20. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    21. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    22. Soderbery, Anson, 2014. "Market size, structure, and access: Trade with capacity constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 276-298.
    23. Blum, Bernardo S. & Claro, Sebastian & Horstmann, Ignatius J., 2013. "Occasional and perennial exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 65-74.
    24. Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1173-1189.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Elena Bobeica & Paulo Soares Esteves & António Rua & Karsten Staehr, 2016. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 107-125.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Dominik Kronen, 2016. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area, the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 349-390.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros & Alcidi Cinzia & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Giovannini, 2014. "Exit State-of-play in Implementing Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area," ROME Working Papers 201405, ROME Network.
    5. Alexander F. McQuoid & JaeBin Ahn, 2015. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Identifying Increasing Marginal Cost," Departmental Working Papers 49, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    6. Soares Esteves, Paulo & Prades, Elvira, 2016. "On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: does export concentration matter?," Working Paper Series 1909, European Central Bank.
    7. Álvarez López, M.ª Elisa & Vega Crespo, Josefa, 2017. "La fortaleza competitiva de la economía española/The Competitive Strength of the Spanish Economy," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 7-34, Enero.
    8. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia & Belke, Ansgar & Coutinho, Leonor & Giovannini, Alessandro, 2014. "State-of-Play in Implementing Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers 482, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    domestic demand pressure; error correction models; asymmetry; playhysteresis; modeling techniques; switching/spline regression; smooth transition models; exports; sunk costs yields;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Albrecht F. Michler). General contact details of provider: http://www.rome-net.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.