IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_5455.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exports and Capacity Constraints: Evidence for Several Euro Area Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Anne Oeking
  • Ralph Setzer

Abstract

We argue that, under certain conditions, firms consider exports as a substitute for domestic demand. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests domestic demand and capacity constraints as additional variables for export equations. We apply the exponential and logistic variant of a smooth transition regression model and find that domestic demand developments are relevant for short-run export dynamics particularly during more extreme stages of the business cycle. A substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales can most clearly be found for Spain, Portugal and Italy, providing evidence of the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Anne Oeking & Ralph Setzer, 2015. "Exports and Capacity Constraints: Evidence for Several Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 5455, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5455
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5455.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berman, Nicolas & Berthou, Antoine & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2015. "Export dynamics and sales at home," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 298-310.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, February.
    3. Faini, Riccardo, 1994. "Export supply, capacity and relative prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 81-100, October.
    4. Tkačevs, Olegs & Christodoulopoulou, Styliani, 2014. "Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?," Working Paper Series 1736, European Central Bank.
    5. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    6. Sharma, Kishor, 2003. "Factors determining India's export performance," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 435-446, June.
    7. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    8. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "Domestic demand, capacity constraints and exporting dynamics: Empirical evidence for vulnerable euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 315-325.
    9. Pekka Ilmakunnas & Satu Nurmi, 2010. "Dynamics of Export Market Entry and Exit," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 101-126, March.
    10. Artus, Jacques R., 1973. "The short-run effects of domestic demand pressure on export delivery delays for machinery," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 21-36, February.
    11. Juan A. Máñez & María E. Rochina-Barrachina & Juan A. Sanchis, 2008. "Sunk Costs Hysteresis in Spanish Manufacturing Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 272-294, July.
    12. Dunlevy, James A, 1980. "A Test of the Capacity Pressure Hypothesis within a Simultaneous Equations Model of Export Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(1), pages 131-135, February.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    14. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:188:p:443-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1173-1189, December.
    16. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    17. JaeBin Ahn & Alexander McQuoid, 2013. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications," Working Papers 1301, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    18. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    19. Soderbery, Anson, 2014. "Market size, structure, and access: Trade with capacity constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 276-298.
    20. Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 57-67.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Anne Oeking & Ralph Setzer, 2013. "Exports and Capacity Constraints – A Smooth Transition Regression Model for Six Euro Area Countries," ROME Working Papers 201313, ROME Network.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Anne Oeking & Ralph Setzer, 2014. "Domestic demand pressure and export dynamics – An empirical threshold model analysis for six euro area countries," EcoMod2014 6780, EcoMod.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "Domestic demand, capacity constraints and exporting dynamics: Empirical evidence for vulnerable euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 315-325.
    4. Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1173-1189, December.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Jan Wagemester, 2017. "Export Hysteresis, Capacity Constraints, and Uncertainty: A Smooth Transition Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 270-294.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Sebastian Ptok, 2018. "British-European Trade Relations and Brexit: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Economic and Financial Uncertainty on Exports," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Bugamelli, Matteo & Gaiotti, Eugenio & Viviano, Eliana, 2015. "Domestic and foreign sales: Complements or substitutes?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 46-51.
    8. Jiang, Xiandeng & Shi, Yanlin, 2020. "Does US partisan conflict affect US–China bilateral trade?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1117-1131.
    9. JaeBin Ahn & Alexander F. McQuoid, 2017. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Identifying Increasing Marginal Cost," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1175-1191, July.
    10. Lucas dos Santos Lourenço & Claudio Roberto Fóffano Vasconcelos, 2019. "Impacts of exchange rate non-linearity on Brazilian foreign trade," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 679-699, October.
    11. Berman, Nicolas & Berthou, Antoine & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2015. "Export dynamics and sales at home," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 298-310.
    12. Alexander McQuoid & Loris Rubini, 2014. "Trade Costs and Markups," Documentos de Trabajo 454, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    13. Joakim Gullstrand, 2020. "What goes around comes around: The effects of sanctions on Swedish firms in the wake of the Ukraine crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2315-2342, September.
    14. Karsten Staehr, 2021. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 204-217.
    15. Juan de Lucio & Raúl Mínguez & Asier Minondo & Francisco Requena, 2018. "Benefits of forced experimentation on exports," Working Papers 1812, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    16. Dai, Xiaoyong & Zhao, Zhiqi, 2021. "Can exporting resolve overcapacity? Evidence from Chinese steel companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Ruling Hong & Mengxun Liu & Haoming Yang & Qianqian Zhang, 2023. "What Drives China’s Exports: Evidence from a Domestic Consumption Expansion Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15, February.
    18. Esteves, Paulo Soares & Prades, Elvira, 2018. "Does export concentration matter in economic adjustment programs? Evidence from the euro-area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 225-241.
    19. Alexander McQuoid & Loris Rubini, 2014. "The Opportunity Cost of Exporting," 2014 Meeting Papers 412, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    domestic demand pressure; error-correction models; hysteresis; modelling techniques; smooth transition models; exports; sunk costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.