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Exports and Capacity Constraints: A smooth transition regression model for six euro-area countries

  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Oeking, Anne
  • Setzer, Ralph
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    The significant gains in export market shares made in a number of vulnerable euro-area crisis countries have not been accompanied by an appropriate improvement in price competitiveness. This paper argues that, under certain conditions, firms consider export activity as a substitute for serving domestic demand. The strength of the link between domestic demand and exports is dependent on capacity constraints. Our econometric model for six euro-area countries suggests domestic demand pressure and capacity-constraint restrictions as additional variables of a properly specified export equation. As an innovation to the literature, we assess the empirical significance through the logistic and the exponential variant of the non-linear smooth transition regression model. We find that domestic demand developments are relevant for the short-run dynamics of exports in particular during more extreme stages of the business cycle. A strong substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales can most clearly be found for Spain, Portugal and Italy, providing evidence of the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade.

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    File URL: http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/WD395%20Belke%20et%20al%20Exports%20%2526%20Capacity%20Constraints.pdf
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    Paper provided by Centre for European Policy Studies in its series CEPS Papers with number 9228.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: May 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:9228
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    1. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, 02.
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    8. Juan A. Máñez & María E. Rochina-Barrachina & Juan A. Sanchis, 2008. "Sunk Costs Hysteresis in Spanish Manufacturing Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 272-294, July.
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    12. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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    15. JaeBin Ahn & Alexander McQuoid, 2013. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications," Working Papers 1301, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
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