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Worldwide Economic Recoveries from Financial Crises Through the Decades

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Barthélemy

    (TAC - Cabinet français de recherche appliquée en économie et finance - Cabinet français de recherche appliquée en économie et finance)

  • Marie-Estelle Binet

    (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

  • Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The profiles of economic recoveries after a financial crisis are identified through a self-organizing map, covering 104 countries during 1973–2017. First and surprisingly, only 55% of the 276 events belong to the usual V-U-L classification. New S-shaped bounce-back recoveries, D(oomed) ones, and double-dip M occur in 23%, 18%, and 4% of the cases, respectively. Second, the frequencies of profiles vary with the crisis type, countries' development and location, and over time. Third, unlike government spending, supporting domestic credit, liquidity, foreign trade or else the exchange rate after the crisis may help activity bounce back.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Barthélemy & Marie-Estelle Binet & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte, 2020. "Worldwide Economic Recoveries from Financial Crises Through the Decades," Post-Print hal-02555515, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02555515
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102204
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02555515
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Recovery; Early Warning Signals; Financial Crises; Output Gap; Self-Organizing Map; Multinomial Logit Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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