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Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia

In: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

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  • Yung Chul Park
  • Jong-Wha Lee

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic adjustment from the crisis in East Asia in a broad international prospective. The stylized pattern from the previous 160 currency crisis episodes over the period from 1970 to 1995 shows a V-type adjustment of real GDP growth in the years prior to and following a crisis. The adjustment shows a much sharper V-type in the crisis episodes with the IMF program, compared to those without. Cross-country regressions show that depreciation of real exchange rate, expansionary macroeconomic policies and favorable global environments are critical for the speedy post-crisis recovery. In this sense, the East Asian process of adjustment is not much different from the stylized pattern from the previous currency crisis episodes. However, the degree of initial contraction and following recovery has been far greater in East Asia than what the cross-country evidence predicts. This paper argues that the sharper adjustment pattern in East Asia is attributed to the severe liquidity crisis that was triggered by investor's panic and then amplified by the weak corporate and bank balance sheet. We find no evidence for a direct impact of a currency crisis on long-run growth.
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Suggested Citation

  • Yung Chul Park & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia," NBER Chapters,in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 275-320 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:9654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, T. -C., 2003. "Education, technical progress, and economic growth: the case of Taiwan," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 213-220, April.
    2. Mora, Ricardo & Siotis, Georges, 2005. "External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 683-702, April.
    3. Bohl, Martin T. & Michaelis, Philip & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 195-207.
    4. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
    5. Roland Craigwell & Troy Lorde & Winston Moore, 2013. "Fiscal policy and the duration of financial crises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 793-801, February.
    6. repec:eee:reveco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:54-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Masahiro Enya & Akira Kohsaka, 2004. "Monetary Transmissions Immediately after the Crisis in East Asia," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 04-05, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    8. Inklaar, Robert & Yang, Jing, 2012. "The impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 466-480.
    9. Spiros Bougheas & Hosung Lim & Simona Mateut & Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, "undated". "Lessons from the Asian Crisis: An Open Economy Credit Channel Model where Export Status Matters," Discussion Papers 12/16, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    10. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
    11. Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
    12. H. Yilmazkuday, 2010. "The effects of currency crises on the long-run growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 209-212, February.
    13. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 735, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    14. Hong, Kiseok & Lee, Jong-Wha & Lee, Young Soo, 2007. "Investment by Korean conglomerates before and after the crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 347-373, August.
    15. Claessens,Constantijn A. & Klingebiel, Daniela & Laeven, Luc, 2004. "Resolving systemic financial crisis : policies and institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3377, The World Bank.
    16. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 193-207, December.
    17. Pritha Mitra, 2006. "Post-Crisis Recovery; When Does Increased Fiscal Discipline Work?," IMF Working Papers 06/219, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Doowon Lee, 2006. "The Korean Economy in Transition: In Search for a New Model," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 207-230.
    20. Saubhik Deb, 2006. "Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 200607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    21. Kritchaya Pattanachak & Jin Man Lee, 2010. "Sources of output volatility from financial crisis in emerging markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 183-199.
    22. Hong, Kiseok & Tornell, Aaron, 2005. "Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, February.
    23. Siegel, Jordan, 2005. "Can foreign firms bond themselves effectively by renting U.S. securities laws?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 319-359, February.
    24. Kohsaka, Akira, 2004. "A fundamental scope for regional financial cooperation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 911-937, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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