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Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating

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Abstract

Currency crises are usually associated with large nominal and real depreciations. In some countries depreciations are perceived to be very costly (?fear of floating?). In this paper we try to understand the reasons behind this fear. We first look at episodes of currency crises in the 1990s and establish that countries entering a crisis with high levels of foreign debt tend to experience large real exchange rate overshooting (devaluation in excess of the long run equilibrium level) and large output contractions. We the develop an model of an open economy with monopolistic competition and short-run price stickiness that helps to explain this evidence. The key element of the model is the presence of a margin constraint on the domestic country. Real devaluations, by reducing the value of domestic assets relative to international liabilities, make countries with high foreign debt more likely to hit the constraint. When countries hit the constraint they are forced to sell domestic assets and this causes a further devaluation of the currency (overshooting) and a reduction of their stock prices (overreaction). This fire sale can have a significant negative wealth effect. The model highlights a key tradeoff when considering fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes; a fixed exchange regime can, by avoiding exchange rate overshooting, mitigate the negative wealth effect but at the cost of additional distortions and output drops in the short run. There are plausible parameter values under which fixed exchange rates dominate flexible from a welfare perspective.

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  • Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Fabrizio Perri & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2004:i:jun:x:5
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 117, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    4. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    5. Benjamin, David M. & Meza, Felipe, 2007. "Total factor productivity and labor reallocation: the case of the 1997 Korea crisis," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0701, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy Yue, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    7. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give up National Currencies: A Case for 'Institutions Substitution'," NBER Working Papers 8950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mr. Philippe Beaugrand, 2003. "Overshooting and Dollarization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2003/105, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial crises and total factor productivity," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Sanusi K A & Meyer D F, 2018. "An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Changes in Government Bonds, Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(4), pages 165-173.
    11. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 10, pages 415-456, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Mr. Mark Allen & Mr. Christian Keller & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg & Nouriel Roubini & Mr. Brad Setser, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/210, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Oya Pınar Ardıc & Faruk Selcuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941.
    14. Michele Cavallo, 2005. "To float or not to float? exchange rate regimes and shocks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan7.
    15. Saki Bigio & Marco Vega, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Balance Sheet Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 157, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Yougbaré, Lassana, 2011. "Exchange rate arrangements and misalignments: contrasting words and deeds," MPRA Paper 32362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Martín Tobal, 2013. "Currency Mismatch: New Database and Indicators for Latin America and the Caribbean," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 12, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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