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“Undermining the Case for a Trade War between the U.S. and China” - Una critica all’ipotesi di una guerra commerciale tra Stati Uniti e Cina

  • Moosa, Imad A.


    (RMIT University School of Economics, Finance and Marketing)

Registered author(s):

    Arguments are put forward to challenge the case for a trade war between the U.S. and China. The threat of a trade war against China is based on three pillars: (i) the Chinese currency is undervalued, (ii) undervaluation of the yuan is the cause of and cure for the U.S. massive trade deficit, and (iii) Chinese policies are illegal and immoral because they hurt not only the U.S. but also the rest of the world and China itself. It is suggested that no one really knows whether the Chinese currency is undervalued or overvalued, that revaluation of the yuan will not eliminate or reduce significantly the U.S. deficit with China and that Chinese policies are neither illegal nor immoral. - Vi è un acceso dibattito sulla ipotesi di una possibile guerra commerciale tra Stati Uniti e Cina. La minaccia di una guerra commerciale contro la Cina si basa su tre pilastri: i) la valuta cinese è sottovalutata; ii) la sottovalutazione dello yuan è sia la causa sia la cura dell’enorme deficit commerciale degli USA; iii) le politiche cinesi sono illegali e immorali poiché danneggiano non solo gli USA ma anche il resto del mondo e la Cina stessa. Lo studio evidenzia che in realtà non si può affermare con certezza se la valuta cinese sia sopra- o sottovalutata, né che la rivalutazione dello yuan ridurrebbe significativamente il deficit USA con la Cina e inoltre che le politiche cinesi al riguardo non sono né illegali né immorali.

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    Article provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.

    Volume (Year): 64 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 365-388

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0627
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    1. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
    2. Nouriel Roubini, 2007. "Why China Should Abandon Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, 03.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ronald McKinnon, 2007. "Why China Should Keep Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 43-70, 03.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
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