IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v28y2011i6p2811-2819.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Imports and growth in China

Author

Listed:
  • Herrerias, M.J.
  • Orts, Vicente

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the role played by imports and investment on labor productivity and output in China from 1964 to 2004. In doing so, our analysis focuses on the role of technological progress incorporated into the Chinese economy through capital accumulation and imports, which could be a cause of significant technology transfer from abroad that facilitated industrialization and rapid growth in China. However, as we know that there could be other factors influencing economic development, we have also considered the role played by domestic innovation activities, competitiveness and foreign economic conditions. We focus on examining the short- and long-run effects of the considered variables as well as the direction of their causality. In addition, we investigate the role played by the exchange rate on growth and discuss some policy implications of this effect on the current debate on the appreciation of the Yuan. The empirical results provide evidence that both imports and investment encourage output and labor productivity in the long run, but neither investment causes imports nor imports cause investment. Moreover, we found that during the period considered the real exchange rate influenced output, but not productivity. These findings provide interesting insights on the future Chinese economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2011. "Imports and growth in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2811-2819.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:6:p:2811-2819
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.08.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999311002173
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.08.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caselli, Francesco & Wilson, Daniel J., 2004. "Importing technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 2001. "Trade in capital goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1195-1235.
    5. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-149, January.
    7. Rachel Griffith & Stephen Redding & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 883-895, November.
    8. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
    9. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1995. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-110, October.
    10. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 2005. "Growth with Quality-Improving Innovations: An Integrated Framework," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 67-110, Elsevier.
    11. Gregory Chow, 2006. "Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 396-414, June.
    12. Shujie Yao & Stephen Morgan, 2008. "On the New Economic Policies Promoted by the 17th CCP Congress in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1129-1153, September.
    13. Traca, Daniel A., 2002. "Imports as competitive discipline: the role of the productivity gap," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 1-21, October.
    14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    15. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    16. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    17. Chow, Gregory C., 1987. "Money and price level determination in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 319-333, September.
    18. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of outliers," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 249-271, June.
    19. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    20. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    21. Cameron, Gavin & Proudman, James & Redding, Stephen, 2005. "Technological convergence, R&D, trade and productivity growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 775-807, April.
    22. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    23. Krishna, Kala & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Swanson, Norman R., 2003. "Trade, investment and growth: nexus, analysis and prognosis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 479-499, April.
    24. Matthias Busse & José L. Groizard, 2008. "Technology Trade in Economic Development," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 569-592, April.
    25. Horst Siebert, 2007. "China: Coming to Grips with the New Global Player," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(6), pages 893-922, June.
    26. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2009. "2009 Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB09-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    27. MacDonald, James M, 1994. "Does Import Competition Force Efficient Production?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 721-727, November.
    28. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2000. "The Great Leap Forward, Economic Reforms, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Testing for Breaking Trend Functions in China's GDP Data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 814-827, December.
    29. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    30. Awokuse, Titus O. & Yin, Hong, 2010. "Does Stronger Intellectual Property Rights Protection Induce More Bilateral Trade? Evidence from China's Imports," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1094-1104, August.
    31. Yu, Qiao, 1998. "Capital investment, international trade and economic growth in China: Evidence in the 1980-1990s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 73-84.
    32. Wolfgang Keller, 2004. "International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 752-782, September.
    33. María Jesús Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2010. "Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China's Growth?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 34-51.
    34. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Guang‐Zhen Sun, 2007. "The Division of Labor, Capital, Communication Technology and Economic Growth: The Case of China 1952–99," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 645-664, November.
    35. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
    36. Kwan, Andy C C & Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 1999. "Fixed Investment and Economic Growth in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 67-79.
    37. Paulo Gala, 2008. "Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 273-288, March.
    38. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    39. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    40. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    41. Madsen, Jakob B., 2002. "The causality between investment and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 157-163, January.
    42. Carsten A. Holz, 2005. "OECD — China Governance Project: The Institutional Arrangements for the Production of Statistics," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2005/1, OECD Publishing.
    43. Phylaktis, Kate & Girardin, Eric, 2001. "Foreign exchange markets in transition economies: China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 215-235, February.
    44. Bramall, Chris, 2000. "Sources of Chinese Economic Growth, 1978-1996," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296973.
    45. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 1998. "Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 111-130, June.
    46. Shujie Yao, 2000. "How Important is Agriculture in China's Economic Growth?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 33-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Yue & Shi, Huimin & Luo, Wei & Liu, Bin, 2018. "Productivity, financial constraints, and firms' global value chain participation: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 184-194.
    2. NguyenHuu, Tams & Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2020. "A new and benign hegemon on the horizon? The Chinese century and growth in the Global South," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 14, pages 1-35.
    3. R. Rijesh, 2021. "Liberalization, Import of Capital Goods, and Industrial Exports: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sectors," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 81-103, January.
    4. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    5. Aleh Mazol, 2015. "Exchange Rate, Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods and GDP Growth in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 32, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    6. Herrerias, M.J. & Cuadros, A. & Orts, V., 2013. "Energy intensity and investment ownership across Chinese provinces," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 286-298.
    7. Adom, Philip K. & Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2014. "Effects of changing trade structure and technical characteristics of the manufacturing sector on energy intensity in Ghana," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 475-483.
    8. Herrerias, M.J. & Cuadros, A. & Luo, D., 2016. "Foreign versus indigenous innovation and energy intensity: Further research across Chinese regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1374-1384.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2013. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 781-797.
    2. M. Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2012. "Equipment investment, output and productivity in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 181-207, February.
    3. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    4. Maria Herrerias, 2010. "The causal relationship between equipment investment and infrastructures on economic growth in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(4), pages 509-526, December.
    5. Aleh Mazol, 2015. "Exchange Rate, Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods and GDP Growth in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 32, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    6. R. Rijesh, 2021. "Liberalization, Import of Capital Goods, and Industrial Exports: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sectors," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 81-103, January.
    7. Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Natércia Fortuna, 2006. "Human capital, trade and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," FEP Working Papers 226, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    8. María Jesús Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2010. "Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China's Growth?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 34-51.
    9. Chebbi, Houssem Eddine & Lachaal, Lassaad, 2007. "Agricultural Sector and Economic Growth in Tunisia: Evidence from Co-integration and Error Correction Mechanism," 103rd Seminar, April 23-25, 2007, Barcelona, Spain 9416, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Faridul Islam & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Import-economic growth nexus: ARDL approach to cointegration," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 194-214, September.
    11. De Cian, Enrica, 2006. "International Technology Spillovers in Climate-Economy Models: Two Possible Approaches," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12040, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    12. Biswajit Maitra & Moutushi Chakraborty, 2021. "International trade, human capital and economic growth in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-426, September.
    13. Matthias Busse & José L. Groizard, 2008. "Technology Trade in Economic Development," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 569-592, April.
    14. Co, Catherine Y., 2014. "Supply-side constraints, capital goods imports, and the quality of Sub-Saharan African countries exports," WIDER Working Paper Series 142, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Mo, Jiawei & Qiu, Larry D. & Zhang, Hongsong & Dong, Xiaoyu, 2021. "What you import matters for productivity growth: Experience from Chinese manufacturing firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Bos, Jaap W.B. & Economidou, Claire & Sanders, Mark W.J.L., 2013. "Innovation over the industry life-cycle: Evidence from EU manufacturing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 78-91.
    17. Jose L. Groizard, 2003. "Technology Trade, Productivity and Growth," DEA Working Papers 4, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    18. Wei Jin, 2012. "Can China Harness Globalization to Reap Carbon Savings? Modeling International Technology Diffusion in a Multi-region Framework," CAMA Working Papers 2012-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Rashid Sbia & Sahel Alrousan, 2016. "Does Financial Development Induce Economic Growth in UAE? The Role of Capitalization and Foreign Direct Investment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 703-710.
    20. Keller, Wolfgang, 2010. "International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Technology Spillovers," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 793-829, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imports; Investment; R&D; Growth; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:6:p:2811-2819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.