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Imports-economic growth nexus: ARDL approach to cointegration

  • Islam, Faridul
  • Adnan Hye, Qazi Muhammad
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad

This paper implements Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) to cointegration to explore long-run relation; and Granger procedure within Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to test direction of causality between imports and economic growth for a sample of forty–ten each from high; upper-middle; lower-middle; and low-income–nations. We find long-run bidirectional causality in high-income nations except Japan. For others, we find mixed results .

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28462/1/MPRA_paper_28462.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28462.

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Date of creation: 28 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28462
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  1. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
  2. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
  3. Edwards, Sebastian, 1992. "Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
  4. Kala Krishna & Ataman Ozyildirim & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis," NBER Working Papers 6861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert Z. Lawrence & David E. Weinstein, 1999. "Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea," NBER Working Papers 7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ann Harrison, 1995. "Openness and Growth: A Time-Series, Cross-Country Analysis for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 5221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jagdish Bhagwati, 2002. "Trade and Poverty in the Poor Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 180-183, May.
  8. Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Romer, Paul M, 1991. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-55, May.
  9. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  10. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
  11. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
  12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  13. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
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