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Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis

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  • Kala Krishna
  • Ataman Ozyildirim
  • Norman R. Swanson

Abstract

This paper looks at the patterns of causation between income, export, import, and investment growth for 25 developing countries. Our approach differs from previous efforts in a number of ways. First, we examine each country individually in order to allow for complete heterogeneity and properly account for the stochastic trending properties of the data. Second, we apply novel model selection techniques which are based on in-sample goodness-of-fit criteria and ex-ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best model for each country. Finally, we propose a rather novel device based on simple contingency tables which allows us to assess whether our models are capable of accurately predicting turning points in GDP growth. We find that countries with high trade exposure fare poorly in this dimension and posit that the GDP growth in such countries is best modeled using an index of global business cycle conditions, in addition to the above variables. Overall, we find that in around two thirds of the countries examined, growth is best explained by exports and/or imports. Further, and in contrast to previous findings of bi-directional causality, around 70% of the countries exhibit uni-directional causality.

Suggested Citation

  • Kala Krishna & Ataman Ozyildirim & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis," NBER Working Papers 6861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6861
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    2. Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Common and uncommon sources of growth in Asia Pacific," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 20-36, March.
    3. Faridul Islam & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Import-economic growth nexus: ARDL approach to cointegration," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 194-214, September.
    4. Emmanuel Nkoa ONGO & Andrew Wujung VUKENKENG, 2014. "Does gross capital formation matter for economic growth in the CEMAC sub-region?," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(33), pages 79-88, November.
    5. Joao Ricardo Faria & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2003. "Cultural Heritage and Growth," Studies in Economics 0303, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    6. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    7. P. K. Mishra, 2012. "The Dynamics of the Relationship between Imports and Economic Growth in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 1(1), pages 57-79, June.
    8. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    9. Kul B. Luintel & George Mavrotas, 2005. "Examining Private Investment Heterogeneity: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2005-11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Harrison, Ann & Hanson, Gordon, 1999. "Who gains from trade reform? Some remaining puzzles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 125-154, June.
    11. Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008. "Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
    12. Judith A. Giles, 2000. "Testing for Two-Step Granger Noncausality in Trivariate VAR Models," Econometrics Working Papers 0008, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    13. Riad Sultan, 2012. "An Econometric Study of Economic Growth, Energy and Exports in Mauritius: Implications for Trade and Climate Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 225-237.
    14. Elliot Boateng & Mary Amponsah & Collins Annor Baah, 2017. "Complementarity Effect of Financial Development and FDI on Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel Data Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 305-318, June.
    15. Acosta, Pablo & Loza, Andres, 2005. "Short and Long Run Determinants of Private Investment in Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8(2), pages 1-18, November.
    16. Antonios Adamopoulos & Athanasios Vazakidis, 2019. "A System Equation Model A Comparative Study for G-7 Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 74-109, October-D.
    17. Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Reinvest the relationship between exports and economic growth in African countries: New insights from innovative econometric methods," MPRA Paper 108785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
    19. HAZMAN, Samsudin & OMAR, Khatijah & ABD HALIMB, Abi sofian & SYAZWAN SHAMSUDIN, Muhammad Saiful, 2021. "Export Led Growth Via Intra-Regional Trading An Econometric Analysis Of Asean, Eu, Nafta, Mercosur And Comesa," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(2), pages 5-28.
    20. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Linking Investment and Fiscal Policies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/16, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    21. Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2011. "Imports and growth in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2811-2819.
    22. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.

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    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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