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A Comparison of Alternatove causality and Predictive Accuracy Tests in the presence of Integrated and Co-integrated Economic Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Swanson, N.R.
  • Ozyildirim, A.
  • Pisu, M.

Abstract

A number of variations of seven causality tests of the absence of causal ordering are examined. The various of the tests considered account not only for stationarity, but also for integratedness and/or contegratedness among the variables in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Swanson, N.R. & Ozyildirim, A. & Pisu, M., 1996. "A Comparison of Alternatove causality and Predictive Accuracy Tests in the presence of Integrated and Co-integrated Economic Variables," Papers 4-96-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:pensta:4-96-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. Laroque, Guy & Salanie, Bernard, 1994. "Estimating the canonical disequilibrium model : Asymptotic theory and finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 165-210, June.
    5. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M & Tremayne, A R, 1996. "Can Economic Time Series Be Differenced to Stationarity?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 435-446, October.
    8. McCabe,B.P.M. & Tremayne,A.R., 1995. "Testing a Time-Series for Difference Stationarity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9420, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    10. Franses, Philip Hans, 1994. "A multivariate approach to modeling univariate seasonal time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 133-151, July.
    11. Swanson, Norman R & White, Halbert, 1995. "A Model-Selection Approach to Assessing the Information in the Term Structure Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 265-275, July.
    12. Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-266, October-D.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Norman Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2006. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 200619, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 85-110.
    3. Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.
    4. Krishna, Kala & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Swanson, Norman R., 2003. "Trade, investment and growth: nexus, analysis and prognosis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 479-499.
    5. Märten Kress, 2004. "Lending cycles in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2004.
    6. Bauer, Dietmar & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Persistence-robust surplus-lag Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 293-300.
    7. Tronzano, Marco, 2011. "“Finance and Growth: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence for the Indian Economy” - Finanza e crescita: un riesame dell’evidenza empirica nel caso dell’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 329-364.
    8. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TESTS; COINTEGRATION; ECONOMIC MODELS;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other

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