“Finance and Growth: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence for the Indian Economy” - Finanza e crescita: un riesame dell’evidenza empirica nel caso dell’India
This paper reassesses the empirical evidence on the finance-growth nexus for India through a large annual data set (1950-2006) and contributes to the current literature in many respects. Differently from most previous research, the empirical evidence supports the ‘demand-following’ hypothesis, namely a unidirectional relationship from real growth to financial development. Since the absence of a causal effect in the reverse direction appears largely due to some recent structural imbalances in the Indian economy, the paper makes a strong case for strengthening the current financial liberalization process. Various policy measures in this direction are outlined, both at the macroeconomic and at the microeconomic level. - Questo articolo riesamina l’evidenza empirica sul nesso finanza-crescita nel caso dell’India usando un ampio campione di dati annuali (1950-2006), e contribuisce alla letteratura esistente sotto diversi profili. Diversamente dalla maggior parte degli studi empirici precedenti, l’analisi supporta la cosiddetta ipotesi di demand-following, cioè l’esistenza di una relazione di causalità unidirezionale dalla crescita reale allo sviluppo del settore finanziario. Poiché l’assenza di una relazione causale in senso inverso appare largamente imputabile ad alcuni recenti squilibri strutturali dell’economia indiana, l’articolo sottolinea l’importanza di rafforzare l’attuale processo di liberalizzazione del sistema finanziario. A questo proposito, vengono individuati vari possibili interventi di politica economica e finanziaria, sia a livello macroeconomico che a livello settoriale.
Volume (Year): 64 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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